Welp, I was wrong about road teams coming through in Week 21 as home teams continued their dominance. Unfortunately the value plays went 0-3 for -3 units, but still up +10.74 units on the season. Week 22’s marquee matchup features Manchester City vs. Tottenham, although the entire league is really just chasing Chelsea for the title at this point.
Week 21 Results
Tottenham -294 vs. West Brom
Arsenal -206 at Swansea
Chelsea -119 at Leicester
Stoke +127 at Sunderland
West Ham +143 vs. Crystal Palace
Hull +201 vs. Bournemouth
Watford/Middlesbrough Draw +214
Man Utd/Liverpool Draw +241
Burnley +349 vs. Southampton
Everton +375 vs. Manchester City
Home: 102 wins of 210 (+21.10 units)
Away: 61 wins of 210 (-59.00 units)
Draw: 47 wins of 210 (-25.44 units)
Title Odds at 5Dimes and Current Points
Chelsea -160 (52)
Liverpool +650 (45)
Tottenham +700 (45)
Arsenal +1200 (44)
Man City +1500 (42)
Man Utd +2200 (40)
I won’t be looking towards road teams this week and instead will be eyeing two draws on the board with value. First off is the West Brom/Sunderland Draw at +291 odds. Both these squads are coming off bad losses last week with West Brom losing 4-0 at Tottenham and Sunderland losing 3-1 at home to Stoke City. These teams met back in October and drew 1-1 in a game that could have been won by either side. For this match, I’m particularly interested in the low public support on the draw (11% of tickets) and the overwhelming money support for West Brom (97% of dollars). This extremely lopsided betting should have moved West Brom considerably, but instead they’ve remained around -145 around the market. With juice on the Under 2.5 goals, I can see another 1-1 finish, so bet the draw at +291 odds.
The other value play for this weekend will be the Crystal Palace/Everton Draw +245. Everton are riding a high right now and seem to be coming into form, but that’s what scares me a bit. They’re only +135 against an inferior Crystal Palace squad who haven’t won in the league since early December. Everton are also getting over 90% of tickets so far, an absurdly high number, especially since the odds of them winning are at just 43%. Below shows odds at Pinnacle since opening along with market betting percentages:
I understand why public bettors are jumping on Everton, but the line has barely moved since opening and less than 5% of tickets are currently on the draw. That’s where I’ll be investing my money this weekend, so grab the Crystal Palace/Everton Draw at +245 or higher odds.
Most Lopsided Around Market: 73% on Everton (+135), 72% on West Ham (+233), 68% on Tottenham (+275)
Biggest Line Moves at CRIS: Southampton (-110 to -120), Crystal Palace (+224 to +213), Liverpool (-400 to -450),
Value Plays (+10.74 units this season): West Brom/Sunderland Draw +291, Crystal Palace/Everton Draw +245
As always, our Premium and Pro members can access all this data including opening/current odds, ticket %’s, money %’s and more.