2016-17 NFL Playoff Odds

The 2016-17 NFL season is scheduled to begin on September 8, 2016 with the annual Thursday night kickoff game. This year we will be treated to a Super Bowl 50 rematch with the defending champion Denver Broncos hosting the Carolina Panthers. Although this date is still roughly four months away, sportsbooks have been posting a smorgasbord of betting opportunities including Week 1 lines, futures and prop bets.

[ View the latest Week 1 odds and betting trends by visiting our free NFL odds page ]

Recently CG Technology posted Yes/No odds for all 32 NFL teams to make the playoffs in the upcoming season. This continued the trend of sportsbooks pushing up their release date for major NFL prop bets and futures.

The table below displays the NFL playoff odds from CG Technology on May 9 along with the implied probability for both “Yes” and “No.” You’ll notice that due to the juice, each implied probability adds up to over 100%. This information will be updated as new information becomes available.

Carolina Panthers -500 83.33% 400 20.00%
Green Bay Packers -420 80.77% 335 22.99%
Seattle Seahawks -400 80.00% 320 23.81%
New England Patriots -260 72.22% 220 31.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers -240 70.59% 200 33.33%
Denver Broncos -150 60.00% 130 43.48%
Minnesota Vikings -140 58.33% 120 45.45%
Dallas Cowboys -135 57.45% 115 46.51%
Arizona Cardinals -135 57.45% 115 46.51%
Indianapolis Colts -130 56.52% 110 47.62%
Kansas City Chiefs -130 56.52% 110 47.62%
Cincinnati Bengals -125 55.56% 105 48.78%
Houston Texans 110 47.62% -130 56.52%
New York Giants 120 45.45% -140 58.33%
Oakland Raiders 130 43.48% -150 60.00%
Baltimore Ravens 140 41.67% -160 61.54%
Philadelphia Eagles 150 40.00% -170 62.96%
Washington Redskins 160 38.46% -180 64.29%
Buffalo Bills 180 35.71% -210 67.74%
Jacksonville Jaguars 200 33.33% -240 70.59%
New York Jets 210 32.26% -250 71.43%
Los Angeles Rams 220 31.25% -260 72.22%
Atlanta Falcons 220 31.25% -260 72.22%
Miami Dolphins 240 29.41% -280 73.68%
Detroit Lions 250 28.57% -300 75.00%
Chicago Bears 250 28.57% -300 75.00%
New Orleans Saints 320 23.81% -400 80.00%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 320 23.81% -400 80.00%
San Diego Chargers 400 20.00% -500 83.33%
Tennessee Titans 550 15.38% -800 88.89%
San Francisco 49ers 600 14.29% -900 90.00%
Cleveland Browns 650 13.33% -1000 90.91%

There are a few surprises with these opening odds, and several teams appear to be offering value. For starters, oddsmakers seem to have overreacted to Tom Brady’s four-game suspension. The Patriots still have the best odds of winning the Super Bowl, however, they only have the fourth best odds of making the playoffs. I won’t typically recommend taking big moneyline favorites, but New England -260 is an excellent value.

Similarly, I can’t fully comprehend why the Colts (-130) are essentially a coin-flip to make the playoffs. The team struggled last year when Andrew Luck went down, but the franchise quarterback will be back behind center when this season begins. The AFC South remains one of the weakest divisions in football, and the Colts look poised for a bounce back season.

One team that I don’t believe will bounce back is the Dallas Cowboys. Although Tony Romo will be returning from a broken collarbone, their defense is painfully thin on edge pass rushers with several question marks about the healthy and production of their cornerbacks. The Cowboys are consistently one of the most popular teams among squares, which often cause their lines to be artificially inflated. For that reason, I like Dallas +115 to miss the playoffs.

Want a real contrarian viewpoint? I don’t think that the defending NFC Champion Panthers will make the postseason this year. Even if you don’t believe in the Super Bowl curse, there’s plenty of reason to think that Carolina will regress. Star cornerback Josh Norman signed with the Redskins and safety Roman Harper is still a free agent.

It’s true that Kelvin Benjamin will return for the upcoming season, but there are still major concerns about the team’s receiving corps. Coming off a 15-1 season and an appearance in the Super Bowl, this is the best time to sell high and take Carolina (+400) to miss the playoffs.

What do you think about these picks? Are there any teams that are offering value? Please leave your thoughts and comments in the section below.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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