2015 NFL Season: Week 6 Betting Recap

Every Tuesday morning, the team at Sports Insights will examine some of the most interesting trends and results from the past week’s NFL action. We’ll also look at our betting systems, prop bets, bad beats and more before looking ahead to the following week.

– In Week 6 underdogs were 10-4 ATS, home teams were 8-6 ATS, and home underdogs were 5-1 ATS. On the season, underdogs are 49-40 ATS, home teams are 41-47 ATS and home underdogs are 15-13 ATS.

– Week 6 was very profitable for betting against the public, with teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets posting a 9-4 ATS record. That includes a 5-2 ATS mark for teams receiving less than 35% of spread bets and a 2-0 ATS mark for teams receiving less than 25% of spread bets.

– Early in the week, the Patriots looked like they would be the most lopsided bet game in our database. Not only were they receiving 92% of spread bets (tied for the most lopsided since 2003), but the number of bets tracked was higher than four smaller games combined.

– Ultimately the Pats received 76% of spread bets, which pushed the line from -7 to -8. The Colts ended up losing by 7-points and covering, but not before arguably the worst play call of the past decade.

– The play call came on a key 4th and 3 in the third quarter with the Colts trailing by just 6-points. The Patriots scored on the subsequent possession to take a 13-point lead. The call showed little faith in the Colts defense and could cause Chuck Pagano to lose his job. The interest quickly reacted with the predictable round of jokes and memes, perhaps none better than this recreation using Techmo Bowl (although Bo Jackson still would have scored on the play).

– In Week 6 the over went 9-4 pushing the season record to 47-42.

– Contrarian plays on the over are rare, but this season the over has gone 9-4 when receiving less than 50% of public support.

– In may not seem like rocket science, but unders have been historically profitable when the closing total is high and overs have performed well when the total is low. This season the over has gone 25-11 (+12.54 units) when the total is less than 44. The under has gone 6-2 when the closing total is at least 50.

– Before the start of the week, Dan Quinn (+300) was the favorite to win NFL Coach of the Year. He was followed by Bruce Arians (+500), Mike McCarthy (+600), Bill Belichick (+800), Marvin Lewis (+800) and Todd Bowles (+800). The Falcons and Cardinals both lost last night, so it will be interesting to see who opens as the favorite next week.

– Divisional favorites include Cardinals (-110), Patriots (-2000), Colts (-600), Bengals (-500), Broncos (-2500), Packers (-5000) and Atlanta/Carolina (+100).

– There are still five remaining undefeated teams and the Patriots and Packers have the best odds of running the table.

– We mentioned the Colts backdoor cover against the Patriots, but there was another bad beat in the early games on Sunday. The Packers/Chargers total closed at 50, and the over looked like a great bet late in the game. Leading 24-20 in the 4th quarter, Aaron Rodgers missed a wide open Richard Rodgers in the end zone on third and goal and Green Bay had to settle for a field goal. On the next drive, Philip Rivers drove the Chargers to the 2-yard line before stalling out with three straight failed plays.

– With their win over Indy, the Patriots (+310) have leapfrogged the Packers (+350) as the Super Bowl favorite at 5Dimes. This is interesting because the NFC is listed as a 1-point favorite over the AFC in the Super Bowl.

– The Patriots odds of posting a perfect 19-0 season are currently +1300 — there are only two team’s with better odds of winning the Super Bowl (Packers +350 and Bengals +925).

– The list before displays the current Super Bowl 50 Futures at 5Dimes. Some of the most significant line moves since the start of the season include Seattle (+550 to +1600), Indianapolis (+800 to +2300), Dallas (+1500 to +4700), Ravens (+1700 to +57500) and Panthers (+4500 to +1850).

New England Patriots +310

Green Bay Packers +350

Cincinnati Bengals +925

Denver Broncos +1375

Arizona Cardinals +1500

Seattle Seahawks +1600

Carolina Panthers +1850

Pittsburgh Steelers +2100

Indianapolis Colts +2300

Philadelphia Eagles +2400

Atlanta Falcons +2500

New York Giants +4000

New York Jets +4500

Dallas Cowboys +4700

Minnesota Vikings +7000

San Diego Chargers +7500

Buffalo Bills +10000

St Louis Rams +10000

New Orleans Saints +17500

Miami Dolphins +18500

San Francisco 49ers +25000

Kansas City Chiefs +30000

Oakland Raiders +35000

Washington Redskins +37500

Detroit Lions +45000

Houston Texans +50000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +50000

Tennessee Titans +50000

Chicago Bears +55000

Baltimore Ravens +57500

Cleveland Browns +85000

Jacksonville Jaguars +100000

Make sure to bookmark our free NFL odds page for the latest lines, public betting trends, injuries, futures and more. Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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