Every Tuesday morning, the team at Sports Insights will examine some of the most interesting trends and results from the past week’s NFL action. We’ll also look at our betting systems, prop bets, bad beats and more before looking ahead to the following week.
– In Week 4 underdogs were 8-6 ATS, home teams were 5-8 ATS, and home underdogs were 2-2 ATS. On the season, underdogs are 32-30 ATS, home teams are 30-31 ATS and home underdogs are 10-9 ATS.
– A week after seeing poor returns on our contrarian strategies, betting against the public was once again profitable in Week 4. Teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets were 7-7 ATS, teams receiving less than 40% of spread bets were 7-4 ATS and teams receiving less than 30% of spread bets were 3-2 ATS.
– On the season, teams receiving less than 49% of spread bets have gone just 28-32 ATS but teams receiving less than 30% of spread bets have gone 11-10 ATS. When an underdog of 3.5+ points is receives less than 30% of spread bets, they have gone 7-4 ATS.
– In the weekend’s biggest upset, the St. Louis Rams (closed +7 on the spread, +260 on the moneyline) defeated the Arizona Cardinals 24-22. Only 23% of spread bettors and 12% of moneyline bettors were backing the Rams.
– Speaking of the Rams, oddsmakers aren’t certain the team will be staying in St. Louis much longer:
Which NFL team will be the first to relocate to Los Angeles? (via CRIS) St. Louis Rams -155 San Diego Chargers +143 Oakland Raiders +636
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) September 4, 2015
In the past month, the Rams odds of being the 1st team to relocate to Los Angeles have moved from -155 to -250. SD drops from +143 to +365.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) October 2, 2015
– Week 4 was great for last season’s cellar dwellers, Teams who finished last season with a losing record (7 or fewer wins) were 11-2 ATS in Week 4. When we eliminate the two games involving two subpar teams (Tampa Bay/Washington and Chicago/Atlanta) that record improves to 9-0 ATS.
– Teams who lost their Week 3 game were 8-6 ATS in Week 4. That record moves to 5-3 ATS when we eliminate the games with two teams coming off a loss.
– In Week 4, the under went 10-5 which moves the season record to 31-31.
– Last week we spoke about how Thursday night was building a reputation for bad beats, and that less-than-proud tradition continued in Week 4. Pittsburgh was in control for most of the game but, holding a 3-point lead in the 4th quarter, kicker Josh Scobee missed two key kicks. Ultimately Justin Tucker’s two field goals — including a game-winning 52 yarder — killed bettors who took Pittsburgh +3 (or +2.5 in a few devastating situations).
– With Andrew Luck sidelined, the Colts dropped from -8.5 to -4 on the spread and -450 to -215 on the moneyline in Sunday’s game against the Jaguars. Tied 13-13 late in the fourth quarter, Jason Myers missed a 53-yard field goal with 6 seconds left in regulation. He then missed another 48-yard field goal in overtime, before Adam Vinateri won the game on a 27-yarder. Although the Jags covered the spread, moneyline bettors were left with a bad taste in their mouth.
- – Last week there were six games decided by double-digits. Before the week, Bovada had set the over/under at 7.5 games.
– We detailed some of the early betting trends and line movement in our Week 5 opening line report, but there has been some additional movement since. There are still three games off the board, but early movers include Jacksonville (+3 to +2.5 at Tampa Bay), Tennessee (+3 to +2.5 vs. Buffalo) and New England (-7.5 to -8.5 at Dallas).
- – After starting the season 1-3, the Miami Dolphins fired head coach Joe Philbin. Before the season Philbin was +1300 to be the first head coach fired, but recent struggles had moved that line tremendously. Last Tuesday Philbin was +240 to be the first coach fired but he had moved to +150 by Saturday.
– Since the start of the season, some of the biggest early Super Bowl 50 moves at 5Dimes include: Packers (+550 to +675), Patriots (+900 to +360), Bengals (+5000 to +1400), Falcons (+4500 to +1800) and Colts (+2200 to +800). You can see the full futures list below:
- Green Bay Packers +340
- New England Patriots +360
- Seattle Seahawks +675
- Denver Broncos +1075
- Cincinnati Bengals +1400
- Arizona Cardinals +1800
- Atlanta Falcons +1800
- Indianapolis Colts +2200
- Carolina Panthers +3800
- New York Giants +4000
- Pittsburgh Steelers +4000
- Dallas Cowboys +4500
- Philadelphia Eagles +5000
- San Diego Chargers +5500
- Buffalo Bills +7000
- New York Jets +7000
- Baltimore Ravens +8000
- Kansas City Chiefs +8500
- Minnesota Vikings +8500
- St Louis Rams +9500
- New Orleans Saints +19000
- Washington Redskins +24500
- San Francisco 49ers +32500
- Tennessee Titans +32500
- Detroit Lions +37500
- Oakland Raiders +37500
- Miami Dolphins +38500
- Houston Texans +52500
- Chicago Bears +55000
- Cleveland Browns +100000
- Jacksonville Jaguars +100000
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +100000
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