2015 MLB Divisional Odds

The 2015 MLB season will begin on Sunday April 5th with the new look Chicago Cubs hosting the St. Louis Cardinals, but we’re not waiting until then to start examining where baseball bettors can find value. Throughout the offseason we have been analyzing MLB futures and win totals, but several weeks ago a prominent offshore sportsbook posted odds for all six division winners.

Bovada, a well known public sportsbook, became the first major oddsmaker to post divisional odds for all 30 MLB teams. Most of these results fell in line with the futures and win totals that had already been posted, but there were a handful of discrepancies.

The table below compares the movement of the divisional odds at Bovada between February 17th and March 4th. It also displays each team’s implied probability to win their division. This section will be continually updated as opening day approaches.

AL East

Team Bovada (3/4) Bovada (2/17) Implied Odds
Boston Red Sox +190 +225 34.48%
Toronto Blue Jays +275 +250 26.67%
Baltimore Orioles +350 +350 22.22%
New York Yankees +450 +400 18.18%
Tampa Bay Rays +700 +700 12.50%

AL Central

Team Bovada (3/4) Bovada (2/17) Implied Odds
Chicago White Sox +225 +225 30.77%
Detroit Tigers +225 +225 30.77%
Cleveland Indians +240 +240 29.41%
Kansas City Royals +450 +450 18.18%
Minnesota Twins +1800 +1800 5.26%

AL West

Team Bovada (3/4) Bovada (2/17) Implied Odds
Los Angeles Angels +160 +160 38.46%
Seattle Mariners +160 +180 38.46%
Oakland Athletics +450 +400 18.18%
Texas Rangers +600 +600 14.29%
Houston Astros +1600 +1600 5.88%

NL East

Team Bovada (3/4) Bovada (2/17) Implied Odds
Washington Nationals -300 -300 75.00%
New York Mets +500 +500 16.67%
Miami Marlins +600 +600 14.29%
Atlanta Braves +1600 +1500 5.88%
Philadelphia Phillies +5000 +5000 1.96%

NL Central

Team Bovada (3/4) Bovada (2/17) Implied Odds
St. Louis Cardinals +125 +125 44.44%
Chicago Cubs +250 +300 28.57%
Pittsburgh Pirates +275 +300 26.67%
Cincinnati Reds +1200 +900 7.69%
Milwaukee Brewers +1200 +900 7.69%

NL West

Team Bovada (3/4) Bovada (2/17) Implied Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers -200 -200 66.67%
San Diego Padres +350 +350 22.22%
San Francisco Giants +350 +350 22.22%
Arizona Diamondbacks +3300 +3300 2.94%
Colorado Rockies +5000 +5000 1.96%

The implied probability for nearly every division adds up to 114%, which means the juice is only 14-cents on this prop bet. This is a surprisingly low figure for any future – especially at Bovada where the juice is often upwards of 30-cents.

Other notes of interest include:

  1. The Chicago Cubs (+1000) have better odds of winning the World Series than the St. Louis Cardinals (+1200), but the Cards are actually listed as +125 favorites to win the NL Central while the Cubs listed just above the Pirates at +250. This difference is likely due to the influx of future bets placed on the Cubs after signing LHP Jon Lester.
  2. The Washington Nationals have the best odds of winning the World Series (+650) as well as the best odds of any team to win their division (-300).
  3. The Red Sox are projected to win between 2.5 and 3.5 games more than the Blue Jays. Boston also has much better odds of winning the World Series (+1000) than Toronto (+2500). However, when we originally posted this article their odds of winning the AL East were nearly identical (+225 vs. +250). Since then, the market has corrected with the Red Sox moving to +190 and the Blue Jays falling to +275.
  4. The Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers have identical odds to win the AL Central and the World Series. However, the Tigers win total is three games higher at the Vegas-based Westgate sportsbook.
  5. Although the Yankees are typically a very public team, the fact that they have dropped from +400 to +450 indicates that public bettors may no longer be smitten with the “Evil Empire.”
  6. Since originally posting this article, the Reds and Brewers both saw their odds of winning the NL Central increase from +900 to +1200.
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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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