2015 College Football: Week 10 Betting Recap

Week 10 was highlighted by more unreal finishes between Arkansas/Ole Miss and Michigan State/Nebraska, as well as other crazy endings, bad beats and more.

Trends and Stats (via BetLabsSports.com):

-Biggest moneyline upsets in Week 10
New Mexico +894 vs. Utah St
NMSU +581 at Tex St
Ark St +393 at App St
Navy +322 at Memphis

-In total there were 9 underdogs of at least +200 on the moneyline to win this week. In Week 8 there were only 2 dogs of +200 or greater to win.

-The LSU/Alabama game received nearly twice as many bets as the next most-bet game of the week and was the 3rd most bet game of the season so far, behind only Michigan St/Michigan and Utah/USC. Bama closed with just 27% of spread bets but covered and won 30-16.

-The 3 best ATS teams in college football this year are all from the MAC: Central Michigan 8-1, Bowling Green 7-2, Toledo 6-1-1.

-The Under is now 24-7 when military academies face each other since 2005. Saturday’s Army-Air Force game went under the closing total by 26 points.

-There have now been 48 closing totals this year above 70 points, more than 2005-2007 combined.

-Despite some high totals and high-scoring games, Unders went 34-26 in Week 10.

-Underdogs went 31-27 ATS in Week 10 while road teams went 32-26 ATS.

-Kansas and Old Dominion were the only teams left in the nation that hadn’t covered a 1st half line. Both covered on the 1st half line Saturday.

-UCF had been the only team in the nation not to have covered a 2nd half line. They finally accomplished that Saturday, covering +7 at Tulsa.

-This was just the 5th time since 2005 that Florida State was a double-digit dog, and they barely covered for just the second time in those occasions.

Futures Watch:

-With their 9-7 win over Vanderbilt, Florida clinched a spot in the SEC Title Game. Before the year they were 31:1 to win the SEC, so there’s a great opportunity to hedge.

-Clemson also clinched a spot in the ACC Title Game after defeating Florida State. Clemson was listed at +300 to win the ACC before the year.

-Heading into Week 10, here were lookahead lines from 5Dimes for the College Football Playoff:
Bama -1 vs. Ohio St
Ohio St -2.5 vs. Clemson
Bama -3 vs. Clemson

-Baylor WR Corey Coleman (20 TDs, 1178 rec yds) is now at 18:1 to win the Heisman after starting the season 185:1.

Bad Beats:

Anyone on the Ole Miss moneyline must have felt good up 7 in overtime and Arkansas facing a 4th and 25.

Friday night bettors on SMU +13 caught a bad break as the Mustangs gave up 2 TDs in the final 2 minutes to blow the cover and lose by 20.

Bettors on the TCU-Oklahoma State Under 77.5 lost when the Cowboys returned an interception for a TD with 44 seconds left to make it 49-29.

Heisman Watch:

LSU RB Leonard Fournette was stifled this week, rushing for only 31 yards in their loss to Alabama.

Next on the list was TCU QB Trevone Boykin, who really struggled in their blowout loss to Oklahoma State. This has really opened up the Heisman race now, with Clemson QB Dashaun Watson gaining steam along with Alabama RB Derrick Henry. Watson went into Week 10 with +900 odds to win the Heisman while Henry was +1500.


NIU QB Drew Hare is out for the year

NC State RB Matt Dayes is out for the year

Videos/Vines of the week:

To put some quick context behind it, Arkansas and Ole Miss went back and forth all game and went into overtime tied 45-45. After Ole Miss went ahead 52-45 after their first possession, Arkansas was faced with a 4th and 25 to keep the game alive. Then this happened en route to a crazy upset from the Hogs:

Here’s Central Florida’s Tre’Quan Smith making a ridiculous catch early in the game:

Michigan State lost a late on to Nebraska on a questionable call:

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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