2015 AL and NL MVP Odds

The 2015 MLB season is well underway and we’ve been updating the blog with a number of articles including Win Totals, Futures, Divisional Odds, Season Props and most recently Cy Young Odds

Last season Angels OF Mike Trout finally broke through and ended Miguel Cabrera’s bid for three consecutive AL MVP awards while Dodgers LHP Clayton Kershaw became the first pitcher to win the award since Justin Verlander in 2011.

The table below, which utilized archived futures from SportsOddsHistory.com, displays the past five MVP winners in each league along with their preseason odds.

Year AL Winner Odds NL Winner Odds
2014 Mike Trout +500 Clayton Kershaw +2000
2013 Miguel Cabrera +700 Andrew McCutchen +1500
2012 Miguel Cabrera +900 Buster Posey +2500
2011 Justin Verlander +7500 Ryan Braun +800
2010 Josh Hamilton +10000 Joey Votto +5000

This season Mike Trout is considered a strong favorite to repeat in the American League and it’s easy to see why. Still only 23-years old, Trout’s projected WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is roughly 75% higher than his closest competitor (Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera) according to the ZiPS projections available on FanGraphs.

Although most of the top competitors come as no surprise, there is one notable surprise listed within the top 15: Red Sox OF Mookie Betts. The 22-year old batted .291 with 5 home runs and 7 stolen bases in just 213 at bats this season and is expected to be in an outfield platoon along with Shane Victorino and Rusney Castillo.

Despite this small sample size and potential obstacles to playing time, BetOnline lists Betts’ odds of winning the AL MVP at +3300. These odds are better than proven teammates like David Ortiz (+6600) and Pablo Sandoval (+8000) but just behind the newly acquired Hanley Ramirez (+1600).

The table below compares the full list of MVP candidates at square books BetOnline, Bovada and TopBet.


Player Team BetOnline (8/29) BetOnline (8/11) Bovada (7/2) Bovada (5/7) Bovada (4/1) TopBet (4/1) BetOnline (3/25)
Josh Donaldson TOR -190 200 900 1600 1600 1600 1600
Mike Trout LAA 140 -175 100 180 100 100 125
Nelson Cruz SEA 2500 1400 1600 450 N/A N/A 6600
J.D. Martinez DET 2500 2500 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Manny Machado BAL 2500 1400 800 N/A N/A N/A 5000
Lorenzo Cain KC 2500 2500 N/A 1600 N/A N/A N/A
Jason Kipnis CLE 5000 5000 400 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Brian Dozier MIN 10000 3300 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Mark Teixeira NYY 20000 2500 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Prince Fielder TEX 20000 5000 1600 N/A N/A N/A 10000
Alex Rodriguez NYY 25000 7500 N/A N/A 10000 10000 N/A
George Springer HOU N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5000
Michael Brantley CLE N/A N/A N/A N/A 1600 1600 2000
Adrian Beltre TEX N/A N/A N/A N/A 2500 2500 5000
Jose Bautista TOR N/A N/A N/A N/A 2500 2500 2500
Victor Martinez DET N/A N/A N/A N/A 2500 2500 3300
Eric Hosmer KC N/A N/A N/A 1200 N/A N/A N/A
Adam Jones BAL N/A N/A N/A 700 2500 2500 5000
Yoenis Cespedes DET N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 6600
Edwin Encarnacion TOR N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2500
Jose Altuve HOU N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5000
Chris Davis BAL N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5000
Stephen Vogt OAK N/A N/A N/A 1600 N/A N/A N/A
Albert Pujols LAA N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 6600
Mookie Betts BOS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3300
Any Pitcher N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2000
Jose Abreu CWS N/A N/A N/A 1600 400 400 550
Pablo Sandoval BOS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 8000
Alex Gordon KC N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 10000
Evan Longoria TB N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 10000
David Ortiz BOS N/A N/A N/A N/A 5000 5000 6600
Field N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 N/A
Hanley Ramirez BOS N/A N/A N/A 2500 2500 2500 1600
Robinson Cano SEA N/A N/A N/A N/A 700 700 1000
Miguel Cabrera DET N/A N/A 450 350 800 800 500
Jacoby Ellsbury NYY N/A N/A N/A 1600 3300 3300 3300


Player Team BetOnline (8/29) BetOnline (8/11) Bovada (7/2) Bovada (5/7) Bovada (4/1) TopBet (4/1) BetOnline (3/25)
Bryce Harper WSH -500 -200 -125 N/A 1600 1500 2000
Paul Goldschmidt ARI 1400 500 350 300 750 750 800
Joey Votto CIN 1600 2000 N/A 550 1600 1500 5000
Clayton Kershaw LAD 1600 2500 N/A N/A 700 700 N/A
Buster Posey SF 2500 1000 1200 N/A 2000 2000 1200
Andrew McCutchen PIT 2500 1000 3300 1000 550 550 400
Anthony Rizzo CHC 2500 1000 1200 1000 2000 2000 2000
Kris Bryant CHC 2500 6600 N/A N/A N/A N/A 3300
Zack Greinke LAD 3300 3300 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Matt Carpenter STL 8000 2500 N/A 900 N/A N/A N/A
Max Scherzer WAS 10000 2500 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Adrian Gonzalez LAD 10000 3300 2000 350 2000 2000 3300
Jonathan Lucroy MIL N/A N/A N/A N/A 600 600 2000
Ryan Braun MIL N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2000
Anthony Rendon WSH N/A N/A N/A N/A 2000 2000 1200
Josh Harrison PIT N/A N/A N/A N/A 3300 N/A N/A
Matt Holliday STL N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5000
Troy Tulowitzki COL N/A N/A N/A N/A 1000 1000 2000
Nolan Arenado COL N/A N/A 2000 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Justin Upton SD N/A N/A N/A 2000 N/A N/A 5000
Jorge Soler CHC N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5000
Freddie Freeman ATL N/A N/A N/A 2000 N/A N/A 5000
Carlos Gomez MIL N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3300
Dee Gordon MIA N/A N/A N/A 600 N/A N/A N/A
Matt Kemp SD N/A N/A N/A N/A 2000 N/A 4000
Yadier Molina STL N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5000
David Wright NYM N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 6600
Christian Yelich MIA N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 8000
Lucas Duda NYM N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 10000
Any Pitcher N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 550
Field N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 150 N/A
Jason Heyward STL N/A N/A N/A N/A 2000 2000 5000
Giancarlo Stanton MIA N/A N/A 2000 900 450 450 450
Starling Marte PIT N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3300
Yasiel Puig LAD N/A N/A N/A N/A 1000 1000 1000
Todd Frazier CIN N/A N/A 600 N/A N/A N/A N/A

While Trout is the obvious favorite in the American League, there are a number of quality candidates in the National League. Although Andrew McCutchen is the favorite (+400), players like Giancarlo Stanton (+450), Paul Goldschmidt (+800) and Yasiel Puig (+1000) are right on his heels.

BetOnline also allows you to bet “Any Pitcher” to win the NL MVP at +550. The most likely pitcher to win this award is reining MVP Clayton Kershaw, but would also include the likes of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Madison Bumgarner.

If you’re looking for a sleeper, Brewers OF Carlos Gomez appears to be offering solid value at +3300. Milwaukee is a fringe playoff team at best, but if they sneak into the postseason it will likely be based in large part on the play of their 29-year old. Over the past two seasons Gomez has been extremely productive with a combined .284 average along with 47 home runs, 146 RBI and 74 stolen bases.

Admittedly it’s unlikely that the Brewers will reach the playoffs, especially as they attempt to come out of a loaded NL Central. However, the fact other players at +3300 include rookies Mookie Betts and Kris Bryant indicates that Gomez is being undervalued.

It’s also fascinating to see that TopBet is offering the option to take “the field” at +200. This bet would encompass a number of impact players including Gomez, Starling Marte, Ryan Braun, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp and many others.

7/7/15 Update:

Bovada recently updated their MVP odds and, although Mike Trout remains the favorite in the American League, there has been a lot of shakeup. Nationals OF Bryce Harper, who is currently batting .344 with 25 home runs and 60 RBI, is a massive favorite in the National League at -125. Before the start of the season, Harper had the eighth-best odds at +1600.

On the American League side, Indians 2B Jason Kipnis has clearly been the year’s most surprising breakthrough player. Although the Indians are currently in 4th place in the AL West, the 28-year old lefty is batting .340 with 6 home runs and 10 stolen bases and is listed at -400 to win the AL MVP. Based on the teams subpar performance, this price seems significantly over-inflated.

Since the start of the season, other key line moves include:

  1. Todd Frazier: N/A to +600
  2. Manny Machado: N/A to +800
  3. Prince Fielder: +10000 to +1600
  4. Nelson Cruz: +6600 to +1600
  5. Andrew McCutchen: +550 to +3300

8/11/15 Update:

Although Bovada does not currently have MVP odds posted, BetOnline recently updated their odds with Mike Trout (-175) and Bryce Harper (-200) increasing their lead over the competition. It’s also interesting to see that Josh Donaldson has skyrocketed from +900 to +200 following the Blue Jays acquisitions of David Price and Troy Tulowitzki along with the teams subsequent winning streak.

In the National League, it’s interesting to see the pitching trio of Max Scherzer (+2500), Clayton Kershaw (+2500) and Zack Greinke (+3300) listed as MVP candidates. It’s especially interesting so see Greinke with the longest odds when his ERA is tops in the National League by nearly half of a run.

8/29/15 Update

In the past three weeks, Bryce Harper (.334 BA, 31 HR, 76 RBI) has continued to swing a hot bat and has seen his odds of winning the NL MVP improve from -200 to -500. This is also interesting because during this time, the Nationals have lost their spot atop the NL East and now trail the Mets by 6.5-games.

If the playoffs started today, the Pirates and Cubs would be the two wild card teams and Washington would be on the outside looking in. Harper clearly has the best statistics of any National League player, but it will be interesting to see if he’s adversely affected by the Nats late season collapse.

In the American League, Josh Donaldson (.296, 35 HR, 105 RBI) has moved from +200 to -190 and has surpassed Mike Trout (.294, 33 HR, 73 RBI) as the MVP favorite. The Blue Jays have gone 19-4 over their past 23 games and now hold a 1.5-game lead over the Yankees in the AL East. Meanwhile, the Angels have struggled recently and are currently just 2-games over .500.

Based on Donaldson’s insane statline and Toronto’s impressive winning streak, it would appear that the Blue Jays slugger should be an even larger favorite than -190. Donaldson’s WAR of 7.1 trails only Bryce Harper (7.5) and his defensive rating of 8.4 trails only Adrian Beltre among AL third basemen.

Baseball season is in full swing, so make sure to bookmark our free MLB odds page for the latest odds, trends, injuries, lineups and more.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

5 Comments Permalink
5 comments on “2015 AL and NL MVP Odds
      • Donaldson should be a lock. No one else has been nearly as consistent and productive in the AL. You also have to factor in his stellar defensive ability and the way he creates runs and hits by pushing out 100% every play and challenging defenders.
        The NL is trickier as a lot depends on who makes it to the playoffs, which, unfortunately, is the main reason Goldy most likely will not take it. In my opinion, he deserves it, but has no support around him in the lineup, which is also scary because imagine what he could do if he did, and unless the DBacks win the rest of their games, he has no chance.
        I think if the Nats continue their hot streak at the end here with a healthy Zimmerman and push for playoffs, then Harper is a lock. He has great numbers but was cold for a chucks of the year because, like Goldschmidt, had no support in the lineup and was walked…a lot, and still is to some extent. Hell, he was walked 4 times without swinging once and scored every time a few days ago.
        My only other contender would be either Rizzo or Arrieta. Both of these guys have given the Cubs a huge chance to win it all and they have great numbers and both have been very consistent in being near the top in their respective positions. If the Giants hadnt suffered from such major injuries and an average pitching staff this year, I am sure I would be talking about Posey and Crawford too, but that is out of the question.
        So if I had to pick it would be Donaldson & Harper for MVP and Keuchel & Arrieta for CY

  1. Is it time yet to include Yoenis Cespedes in the NL MVP conversation? The difference he’s made to the Mets in the brief time since the trade cannot be discounted! He’d be my vote…

    • Based on his full season statistics, Cespedes has absolutely been one of the best players in baseball and has clearly been the catalyst in New York’s recent hot streak. That said, he has only played 35 games for the Mets (.307 BA, 13 HR, 34 RBI). Players who are traded to a different league at the trade deadline simply don’t have much opportunity to win the MVP.

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