2014 World Cup: Round of 16 Odds

2014 World Cup: Round of 16 Odds

This has been one of the most exciting World Cups in history and there’s no reason to believe it won’t continue into the next round. Overs went 28-18-2 in the group stages but scoring tends to slow down as the elimination games take on more meaning. The Round of 16, or knockout stage, is comprised of the top 2 teams from each group in a single-elimination bracket. Below are the opening odds for each game on the 3-way line via CRIS, but keep track of the latest odds and betting percentages around the market at our Free World Cup page:

Brazil -160, Chile +425, Draw +295 (Draw 1-1, Brazil wins in penalties 4-3)

Colombia +105, Uruguay +290, Draw +235 (Colombia wins 2-0)

Netherlands +115, Mexico +255, Draw +225 (Netherlands wins 2-1)

Costa Rica +150, Greece +220, Draw +195 (Draw 1-1, Costa Rica wins in penalties 5-3)

France -190, Nigeria +666, Draw +330 (France wins 2-0)

Argentina -194, Switzerland +660, Draw +338 (Draw 0-0, Argentina wins 1-0 in extra time)

Germany -335, Algeria +1100, Draw +500 (Draw 0-0, Germany wins 2-1 in extra time)

Belgium -125, USA +423, Draw +266 (Draw 0-0, Belgium wins 2-1 in extra time)

While those are the 3-way lines (results based on 90 minutes, no extra-time or penalties included), some may be more interested in simply who will advance from the Round of 16 which is the ultimate goal. We decided to use FiveThirtyEight.com, developed by Nate Silver, as a benchmark as they’re renowned for their ability to use rankings and power indexes to find each team’s ‘true’ odds. We then converted the opening odds to advance from the Round of 16 from 5Dimes into implied probabilities and compared them to the probabilities from FiveThirtyEight.com to find any disparities:

CountryImplied ProbabilityFiveThirtyEight Probability
Brazil76% (-320 odds)78%
Chile28% (+260 odds)22%
Colombia66% (-195 odds)63%
Uruguay37% (+170 odds)37%
Netherlands64% (-180 odds)69%
Mexico39% (+158 odds)31%
Costa Rica57% (-130 odds)56%
Greece48% (+110 odds)44%
France81% (-425 odds)72%
Nigeria23% (+340 odds)28%
Argentina83% (-485 odds)75%
Switzerland21% (+385 odds)25%
Germany88% (-790 odds)77%
Algeria16% (+545 odds)23%
Belgium68% (-215 odds)57%
USA36% (+178 odds)43%

Based on the implied odds and FiveThirtyEight.com’s odds, here are some teams that may have some value to progress:

Brazil 

Netherlands

Switzerland

Nigeria

Algeria

USA

This doesn’t necessarily mean to bet on every team whose odds from FiveThirtyEight are higher than the implied odds, but it’s a great reference point to use and shows how important it is to shop for the best line. Are there any teams you especially like to make it through the Round of 16? Feel free to leave your comments below.

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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