2014 World Cup: Round of 16 Odds

This has been one of the most exciting World Cups in history and there’s no reason to believe it won’t continue into the next round. Overs went 28-18-2 in the group stages but scoring tends to slow down as the elimination games take on more meaning. The Round of 16, or knockout stage, is comprised of the top 2 teams from each group in a single-elimination bracket. Below are the opening odds for each game on the 3-way line via CRIS, but keep track of the latest odds and betting percentages around the market at our Free World Cup page:

Brazil -160, Chile +425, Draw +295 (Draw 1-1, Brazil wins in penalties 4-3)

Colombia +105, Uruguay +290, Draw +235 (Colombia wins 2-0)

Netherlands +115, Mexico +255, Draw +225 (Netherlands wins 2-1)

Costa Rica +150, Greece +220, Draw +195 (Draw 1-1, Costa Rica wins in penalties 5-3)

France -190, Nigeria +666, Draw +330 (France wins 2-0)

Argentina -194, Switzerland +660, Draw +338 (Draw 0-0, Argentina wins 1-0 in extra time)

Germany -335, Algeria +1100, Draw +500 (Draw 0-0, Germany wins 2-1 in extra time)

Belgium -125, USA +423, Draw +266 (Draw 0-0, Belgium wins 2-1 in extra time)

While those are the 3-way lines (results based on 90 minutes, no extra-time or penalties included), some may be more interested in simply who will advance from the Round of 16 which is the ultimate goal. We decided to use FiveThirtyEight.com, developed by Nate Silver, as a benchmark as they’re renowned for their ability to use rankings and power indexes to find each team’s ‘true’ odds. We then converted the opening odds to advance from the Round of 16 from 5Dimes into implied probabilities and compared them to the probabilities from FiveThirtyEight.com to find any disparities:

Country Implied Probability FiveThirtyEight Probability
Brazil 76% (-320 odds) 78%
Chile 28% (+260 odds) 22%
Colombia 66% (-195 odds) 63%
Uruguay 37% (+170 odds) 37%
Netherlands 64% (-180 odds) 69%
Mexico 39% (+158 odds) 31%
Costa Rica 57% (-130 odds) 56%
Greece 48% (+110 odds) 44%
France 81% (-425 odds) 72%
Nigeria 23% (+340 odds) 28%
Argentina 83% (-485 odds) 75%
Switzerland 21% (+385 odds) 25%
Germany 88% (-790 odds) 77%
Algeria 16% (+545 odds) 23%
Belgium 68% (-215 odds) 57%
USA 36% (+178 odds) 43%

Based on the implied odds and FiveThirtyEight.com’s odds, here are some teams that may have some value to progress:







This doesn’t necessarily mean to bet on every team whose odds from FiveThirtyEight are higher than the implied odds, but it’s a great reference point to use and shows how important it is to shop for the best line. Are there any teams you especially like to make it through the Round of 16? Feel free to leave your comments below.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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