2015 Women’s World Cup Odds vs. FiveThirtyEight

On Tuesday morning fivethirtyeight.com, a website focusing on statistical analysis, released their predictions for the 2015 Women’s World Cup.  You can learn more about how their model works by visiting their site, but I wanted to interpret that data into the betting terms that we are familiar with.

Below is a table that displays FiveThirtyEight’s predictions along with a converted moneyline. We then added the Women’s World Cup Odds from both a sharp sportsbook (Pinnacle) and a square book (Bovada).

Team 538 Win % Implied Odds Pinnacle Odds Bovada Odds
USA 28% +257 +264 +225
Germany 27% +270 +318 +333
Japan 10% +900 +760 +700
France 8% +1150 +638 +750
Canada 7% +1329 +1050 +1000
Brazil 6% +1567 +850 +700
Sweden 5% +1900 +1600 +1000
England 2% +4900 +2000 +2000
Norway 2% +4900 +3000 +2500
Australia 2% +4900 +5000 +4000

 

FiveThirtyEight and Bovada have listed predictions and odds for group play as well.  You can see the predicted percentage, implied odds, and given odds at Bovada in the individual tables below.

 

Group A

Team 538 Win % Implied Odds Bovada Odds
Canada 59.2% -145 -275
Netherlands 18.1% +452 +550
China 14.5% +590 +550
New Zealand 8.2% +1120 +1200

Group B

Team 538 Win % Implied Odds Bovada Odds
Germany 83.4% -502 -1000
Norway 15.9% +529 +600
Ivory Coast 0.6% +16567 +3300
Thailand 0.1% +99900 +6600

Group C

Team 538 Win % Implied Odds Bovada Odds
Japan 79.3% -383 -800
Switzerland 14.5% +590 +500
Cameroon 6.1% +1539 +5000
Ecuador 0.1% +99900 +3300

Group D

Team 538 Win % Implied Odds Bovada Odds
USA 64.7% -183 -300
Sweden 21.2% +372 +300
Australia 9.7% +931 +1000
Nigeria 4.4% +2173 +2800

Group E

Team 538 Win % Implied Odds Bovada Odds
Brazil 70.0% -233 -400
Spain 15.0% +567 +450
South Korea 13.8% +625 +750
Costa Rica 1.2% +8233 +3300

Group F

Team 538 Win % Implied Odds Bovada Odds
France 60.2% -151 -150
England 31.6% +216 +150
Mexico 5.5% +1718 +1200
Colombia 2.8% +3471 +1600

Based on the discrepancies between FiveThirtyEight’s implied odds and the current odds at Bovada, these were the four best group winner bets based on value:

  1. Group C: Cameroon (+5,000)
  2. Group A: Netherlands (+550)
  3. Group E: South Korea (+750)
  4. Group B: Norway (+600)

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Travis

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