2015 Women’s World Cup Odds vs. FiveThirtyEight

2015 Women’s World Cup Odds vs. FiveThirtyEight

On Tuesday morning fivethirtyeight.com, a website focusing on statistical analysis, released their predictions for the 2015 Women’s World Cup.  You can learn more about how their model works by visiting their site, but I wanted to interpret that data into the betting terms that we are familiar with.

Below is a table that displays FiveThirtyEight’s predictions along with a converted moneyline. We then added the Women’s World Cup Odds from both a sharp sportsbook (Pinnacle) and a square book (Bovada).

Team538 Win %Implied OddsPinnacle OddsBovada Odds
USA28%+257+264+225
Germany27%+270+318+333
Japan10%+900+760+700
France8%+1150+638+750
Canada7%+1329+1050+1000
Brazil6%+1567+850+700
Sweden5%+1900+1600+1000
England2%+4900+2000+2000
Norway2%+4900+3000+2500
Australia2%+4900+5000+4000

 

FiveThirtyEight and Bovada have listed predictions and odds for group play as well.  You can see the predicted percentage, implied odds, and given odds at Bovada in the individual tables below.

 

Group A

Team538 Win %Implied OddsBovada Odds
Canada59.2%-145-275
Netherlands18.1%+452+550
China14.5%+590+550
New Zealand8.2%+1120+1200

Group B

Team538 Win %Implied OddsBovada Odds
Germany83.4%-502-1000
Norway15.9%+529+600
Ivory Coast0.6%+16567+3300
Thailand0.1%+99900+6600

Group C

Team538 Win %Implied OddsBovada Odds
Japan79.3%-383-800
Switzerland14.5%+590+500
Cameroon6.1%+1539+5000
Ecuador0.1%+99900+3300

Group D

Team538 Win %Implied OddsBovada Odds
USA64.7%-183-300
Sweden21.2%+372+300
Australia9.7%+931+1000
Nigeria4.4%+2173+2800

Group E

Team538 Win %Implied OddsBovada Odds
Brazil70.0%-233-400
Spain15.0%+567+450
South Korea13.8%+625+750
Costa Rica1.2%+8233+3300

Group F

Team538 Win %Implied OddsBovada Odds
France60.2%-151-150
England31.6%+216+150
Mexico5.5%+1718+1200
Colombia2.8%+3471+1600

Based on the discrepancies between FiveThirtyEight’s implied odds and the current odds at Bovada, these were the four best group winner bets based on value:

  1. Group C: Cameroon (+5,000)
  2. Group A: Netherlands (+550)
  3. Group E: South Korea (+750)
  4. Group B: Norway (+600)

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