2014 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds

Just over two weeks ago, BetOnline posted a prop bet which listed the odds for the 2014 NFL Comeback Player of the Year. However, they listed odds for just four players with an option to bet the field at +300. It’s very rare to see player props with such few options, and even more strange to see such an enticing price on the field. Then again, it’s hard to blame oddsmakers for this decision.

After a breakthrough rookie season where he led the Washington Redskins to a 10-6 record and their first playoff appearance in five years, Robert Griffin III struggled mightily during his sophomore campaign. The former Baylor product saw his completion percentage drop by over 5%, his total touchdowns drop by eleven, and his interception count increase by seven. In just 13 starts, Griffin’s Redskins’ won just three games as the team finished with the second worst record in football.

With Griffin now fully healed from the ACL and LCL injuries he suffered during the 2012 playoffs, he will look to rebound and was listed as the favorite to win the 2014 NFL Comeback Player of the Year when BetOnline first posted this prop:

While BetOnline was quick to take this prop bet off the board, earlier this week Sportsbook.com posted Comeback Player of the Year odds for over 30 different players with Griffin listed at +600 — a significant change from the +150 previously offered by BetOnline. Later in the week BetOnline re-opened this prop bet, but with major changes to their odds.

The table below compares the current odds for the 2014 NFL Comeback Player of the Year at Sportsbook.com and BetOnline and will be updated throughout the season as these odds change and more sportsbooks begin posting odds. To maximize value we encourage our customers to always shop for the best line before placing any bets.

Player Sportsbook.com (8/14) BetOnline (8/15)
Robert Griffin III +600 +400
Aaron Rodgers +700 +1000
Julio Jones +700 +600
Rob Gronkowski +1000 +1000
Percy Harvin +1500 +2000
Eli Manning +1800 +1400
Matt Ryan +1800 +1600
Arian Foster +2000 +2000
Michael Vick +2500 +2800
Matt Schaub +2500 +2000
Michael Crabtree +2500 N/A
Doug Martin +2500 +2000
Ryan Fitzpatrick +3000 +3300
Tony Romo +3000 +4000
Von Miller +3000 +2800
Sam Bradford +3000 +2800
CJ Spiller +3500 +3300
Hakeem Nicks +3500 N/A
Chris Johnson +4000 +4000
DeMarcus Ware +4000 N/A
Jeremy Maclin +4000 +4000
Danny Amendola +5000 N/A
Trent Richardson +5000 N/A
Jason Pierre-Paul +5000 N/A
Reggie Wayne +5000 N/A
Clay Matthews +5000 N/A
Darren McFadden +7500 N/A
Larry Fitzgerald +7500 N/A
Ray Rice +8000 N/A
Maurice Jones-Drew +8000 N/A
Lance Briggs +8000 N/A
Dwight Freeney +8000 N/A
Ed Reed +10000 N/A

Between 2007 and 2012, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers averaged over 4,250 passing yards and 34 touchdowns. Due to injury, Rodgers played just nine games last season and finished with just 2,536 passing yards and 17 touchdowns. If the 2011 NFL MVP can stay healthy and regain his old form, Rodgers (+700) is definitely an interesting candidate for Comeback Player of the Year. Likewise for Rob Gronkowski (+1000) who has been arguably the best tight end in football, but has struggled to stay on the field throughout his career.

It’s interesting to note that the past six award winners have all been quarterbacks, including:

2008: Chad Pennington, QB, Miami Dolphins
2009: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
2010: Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
2011: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
2012: Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos
2013: Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers

Who do you think will be the 2014 NFL Comeback Player of the Year? Will injuries once again strike down some of the league’s top players? Can a quarterback win this award for the seventh consecutive season? Please leave your thoughts and comments in the section below.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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