2014-15 College Football 4-Team Playoff

The 2014-15 College Football 4-team Playoff has finally been selected and while some teams are ecstatic to get in, others feel shafted.

Playoff Schedule:

1. Alabama vs. 4. Ohio State

2. Oregon vs. 3. Florida State

Betting Trends and Odds:

Alabama opened -9.5 vs. Ohio State at Westgate LV and -10 at Pinnacle. Bets are split 50/50 from our 7 contributing sportsbooks and this is the second highest bet bowl game this year. Alabama is currently -9 at both books now.

Oregon opened -8.5 vs. Florida State at Westgate LV and -7.5 at Pinnacle. Nearly 2/3 of spread bets and over 80% of ML bets are coming in on Florida State yet the line has gone up to Oregon -9.

This is the first time since September 24, 2011 vs. Clemson that Florida State has been an underdog (50 game span).

National Title Odds throughout the season via Sportsbook:

Team 12/8 12/7 12/1 11/24 11/17 11/10 11/3 10/27 10/20 10/13 10/6 9/29 9/22 9/15 9/8 9/2 8/23 7/21
Alabama +130 +160 +150 +175 +260 +350 +550 +600 +650 +800 +900 +600 +600 +650 +800 +800 +600 +650
Oregon +160 +175 +250 +450 +380 +400 +450 +750 +750 +1200 +2500 +900 +900 +700 +800 +900 +700 +750
Ohio St +550 +400 +1500 +600 +550 +650 +1500 +900 +900 +1000 +1800 +1800 +1800 +2800 +3000 +2000 +2000 +1200
Florida St +700 +600 +900 +750 +600 +850 +700 +800 +750 +700 +550 +750 +750 +550 +500 +400 +360 +500

Potential Title Game Odds via 5Dimes:

FSU -3 vs. Ohio St
Bama -10.5 vs. FSU
Oregon -10 vs. Ohio St
Bama -4 vs. Oregon

Title Game Scenarios via BetOnline:

4 team playoff scenarios

2014 ATS records:

Alabama 5-8

Oregon 9-4

FSU 3-10

Ohio State 8-5

When the human element of selecting these teams comes into place, there’s undoubtedly objections and arguments to be made. In the week leading up to the Conference Championship games, we forecasted the probabilities of each scenario. TCU had a 91.6% chance to make the playoff before Saturday’s games, but on Sunday morning had less than a 50% chance (+168 odds at 5Dimes). On the other side of things, Ohio State had a 24.6% chance heading into Saturday, but after their 59-0 demolition of Wisconsin, moved to a 65.1% chance (-195 odds at 5Dimes).

Preseason Odds to make the Playoff at Bovada:

FSU -250

Alabama -130

Ohio State +100

Oregon +110

It looked like oddsmakers were spot on before the season, as these were the 4 teams with the best odds to make the playoff back in August. On the morning of the 4-team playoff announcement, there was plenty of odds speculation for the last 2 teams in.

Sunday , December 7th morning’s 4-team playoff odds at 5Dimes:

Alabama IN

Oregon IN

FSU -25,000 to -20,000 to -10,000

Ohio State -165 to -530 to -320

TCU +160 to +350 to +230

Baylor +1500 to +1750 to +1800

On Sunday morning at TopBet, the field of Alabama, Oregon, FSU, and Ohio State looked even more certain with odds of -300 that those would be the exact 4 teams selected.

Sunday, December 7th morning’s AP Poll:

1. Alabama

2. FSU

3. Oregon

4. Baylor (1,265 points)

5. Ohio St (1,262 points)

6. TCU (1,257 points)

Despite finishing ahead of Ohio State in the AP Poll, Baylor found themselves outside of the 4-team playoff.

You can check out all the current odds, trends, injuries, breaking news and more at our Free Live Odds page.

Did the committee select the 4 teams that earned a playoff spot, or were Baylor and TCU given a bad deal? Feel free to leave your comments below.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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