Revenge of the NHL Contrarian Play

In several blog posts, we have mentioned that contrarian sports investing methods for the NHL turned cold after a hot start. After a very cold start to December, the NHL showed signs of heating up last night.  Here are some results (that also give us a picture of how contrarian sports selections sometimes play out).

Here’s a look at the NHL sports marketplace results for Wednesday, December 15th:

  • Heaviest-bet NHL game with lopsided betting activity:  NY Rangers (13,422 bets; 34% money line bets) — wins 4-1.
  • Most lopsided-bet NHL game: StL (19%) — loses 5-2.
  • Other lopsided-bet games, defined as <=39% of bets (please see SportsInsights’ research article on betting against the Public in the NHL):  5-2,  so that NHL contrarian plays were 6-3 yesterday, with many of these plays heavy underdogs (earning +150 odds or more).
  • Of the six wins, four were just one goal victories.
  • Of the three losses, two were blowouts by three goals or more.

Contrarian sports investing in a prudent manner using good money management has sometimes been described as “grinding things out.” We believe there is an edge in this value investing activity, but it is sometimes results in “ugly plays” and blowouts against the selections.  However, in the long-run, we often capture these victories by small margins and add to the bankroll.

SportsInsights recently published an article on Why Contrarian Sports Investing Works. In an upcoming article, we’ll look at some of the numbers of specific results.

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