Welcome to the 2012-13 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market.
Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record: 0-0
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true line value. Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
Miami (OH) vs. Ohio State (9/1 – 12:00 p.m. ET)
After a 10-win season in 2010, Miami (OH) struggled last year, losing their final three games to finish with a 4-8 record. Despite a disappointing 2011 campaign, the RedHawks hope senior quarterback Zac Dysert can build on his 2011 season (3,513 yards and 23 touchdowns) and catapult them back into bowl contention.
Some guy named Urban Meyer will be making his debut as Ohio State’s head coach Saturday and, despite not being bowl eligible due to NCAA sanctions, the team hopes their on-field performance will prove the program has moved on from the off-field issues that plagued the Jim Tressel era.
Ohio State opened as a 22.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and has been pounded by the betting public. The Buckeyes are currently receiving 89% of spread wagers, pushing the line up two full points to -24.5.
The table below shows a breakdown of the spread betting percentages from our six contributing sportsbooks.
Our betting systems have triggered zero plays on either side of this game, indicating the line movement is due mostly to public money. In fact, the line history chart below shows that since opening, the line remained steady at -22.5 until the middle of this week when it started its climb to -24.5.
With the influx of public money (as opposed to sharp action) producing an inflated line, we’re happy to grab the extra two points of value created by the lopsided betting.
At the time of publication, most sportsbooks have this game at 24.5, but notoriously public books like Bodog and SIA have already moved to a full 25.
To kick off the 2012-13 NCAA Football season, we’re fading a huge public favorite and taking Miami (OH) to keep it relatively close.
Game to Watch (0-0)
Miami (OH) +25
It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football action. Keep Marketwatch handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates.
Enjoy the games!