When can a 69.4% Win Rate Result in a Loss of Almost 9 Units?

Tonight the Yankees have an opportunity to win the AL East with a victory over the Red Sox — and the odds of that happening are definitely in their favor. The Red Sox have actually been worse this September (7-21 record) than they were during last season’s historic collapse, and have been trotting out a glorified Triple-A lineup for the past several weeks.

Perhaps that explains why the Yankees are listed as -330 home favorites at Pinnacle. But how have these huge favorites fared historically?

Using our BetLabs software, we discovered that since 2004, favorites of -300 or greater have gone 68-30 for a win rate of 69.4%. Although that number looks impressive, betting every heavy favorite would have resulted in a loss of 8.83 units and a -9% return on investment.


The following two tabs change content below.

David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

Latest posts by David Solar (see all)

Say something

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked with a grey bar.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>