Last night, while many of us were already asleep, the Cubs and Yankees were busy squeezing two entire games worth of baseball into a single night. The Yankees held a three-run lead entering the bottom of the ninth, but Aroldis Chapman hit Anthony Rizzo with a 100-mph shot to the wrist with the bases loaded that tied the game at four. That game-tying run extended the game for three more hours, but the Yankees surprisingly came away with the win in the 18th inning.
Although they nearly came back and won the game, their valiant effort last night created a very rare situation for tonight’s game: people are betting against the Cubbies.
If you look at the line graph above, you can see that right around midnight, the Cubs percentage of tickets (the blue line) and money (the green line) began to fall and their line reacted accordingly.
From midnight to 6 AM eastern, they moved from -144 to -127 at Pinnacle. It’s clear from the percentages that both sharp and public bettors felt that the Cubs’ marathon game hurt their chances in tonight’s game, and that was compounded by the fact that they’re playing a mile above sea-level. Not only was the bullpen totally taxed, the key position players will surely be tired, too.
I am fairly confident in saying that the Cubs would likely be getting more than 50% of bets if they played a standard length game last night. Not only do the percentages line up with this timeframe, it is also incredibly rare to see the Cubs get this little action. They have been sitting in the 35-40% range all day, a number that is on the high side for a team like the Padres, but essentially the minimum that the Cubs will ever receive.
Last season, they only received less than 40% of bets on six occasions, going 4-2 in those games. This year, it hasn’t happened yet, but they did receive 41% against the Yankees (another very public team) when Brett Gardner’s 3-run dinger in the 9th gave the Yankees the win.
As far as percentage of dollars, the 14% they are currently receiving is the lowest we have tracked since adding money percentages nearly two years ago. The Cubs have never received less than 23% of moneyline dollars, and they have received less than 30% only twice. I believe the current number will rise, but it will still end up as one of their lowest backings since we began tracking the percentage of money on each side.
Our free MLB odds page features real-time odds so be sure to check out whether the line continues to move towards the Rockies or if bettors buy-back on the Cubs. If you are interested in getting percentage of dollars, consider trying a sportsbook insider pro trial.
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