Why are Key Numbers so Important in NFL Betting?

Because NFL teams most often score in multiples of 3 (field goals) and 7 (touchdowns + extra points), getting on or off these key numbers can have a significant effect on your winning percentage and units won. For example, since 2003 there have been 2,670 NFL games played (including both regular and postseason games). 411…

Why is a 70% Win Rate Unrealistic When Betting on the NFL?

The sports betting industry is one that lacks regulation, meaning anyone can start a company, website or used car salesman persona to start selling picks. Because there is no regulation, handicappers can tout false records and promises of unimaginable wealth in order to obtain business. While there are many legitimate and transparent handicappers in the…

Which Super Bowl Prop Bets are Offering the Most Value?

For most of the NFL season, props are looked at as sucker bets, and everyone should just ignore them.  All of these assumptions change during the Super Bowl. The number of Super Bowl prop bets available has grown exponentially over the years, which means it is more likely that there are some “soft” lines that…

Parlays vs. Teasers: Which is the Better NFL Betting Strategy?

When dealing with favorites, we often get asked by our members whether teasers or parlaying moneylines provide the better payout. For example, this week’s NFL Wild Card Playoffs include Green Bay Packers (-7.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings and Baltimore Ravens (-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts. By including Green Bay and Baltimore in a two-team, 7-point teaser, bettors are dropping…

For Late Season NFL Bettors, There’s No Place Like Home

In 2003, Richard Borghesi published a paper called, “Price Predictability: Insights from the NFL Point Spread Market.” In this paper, Borghesi analyzed Week 15 through the playoffs from 1981-2000 and found that, after Week 14, there is increased value in NFL betting when isolating large, home underdogs. Last season, we updated this analysis to see…