Sportsbooks Rooting For Home Teams In Highly Bet NCAAF Games
Apparently the theme of Week 11 is “lopsided action on the road team”. In games with the highest ticket counts, the road team is getting more than 70% of spread bets in each one of them but the line movement has differed on all. Here’s a look at the top games Saturday getting the most action, sorted by number of tickets:
On Saturday morning, steam on the Irish moved ND from -3 to -3.5 around the market. This is the third time that Irish steam has hit the market, and we’ve seen sharp money come in to take Miami at +3.5 every time they’ve reached that number. Despite being the 8 pm ET game, bettors can’t wait to get in on the action– it’s consistently been the top ticket count the entire week. Add in the fact that we’ll likely see an upset in the playoff race before the game even starts, and the drama will be huge on Saturday night in Miami. ND will likely be the biggest decision for many, many books around the offshore and Vegas markets:
Notre Dame shaping up to be biggest sweat of CFB season. Only 13% of $$$ on Miami. Irish up to -3.5 (-121). https://t.co/ywCq6Af98U
— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) November 11, 2017
Offshore books and Nevada (@WilliamHillUS) need the home teams in the most-bet games of the day. pic.twitter.com/yeac1y1XrG
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) November 11, 2017
Not only are the ticket counts on the road teams >70%, but the money percentages are as well. Despite heavy action on the Spartans, we’ve actually seen a ton of reverse-line movement on Ohio State. On Saturday morning they reached -17.5 at Pinnacle and -18 at Bookmaker:
This is certainly looking like a great spot to fade the trendy dog. Conference faves getting <33% of spread bets have gone 68-43 ATS historically. We’ve never tracked an underdog of 14+ points to get this amount of support– the previous high for an underdog this big was Nebraska (+17) getting 72% of spread bets at Ohio State last season. The Cornhuskers lost that game 62-3.
As for the 2 big SEC games, we’ve seen sharp movement on Mississippi State. They opened +14.5 and dropped to +13 despite just 20% of tickets.
Georgia actually opened +2 at BetOnline last Sunday, but they reached -3 around the market before settling at -2. People may be overlooking Auburn, but if the Tigers can pull off a home win against the Bulldogs, they’ll quickly be in the National Championship and Playoff discussion.