Rule Changes Affecting NIT Totals

The 2015 National Invitational Tournament (NIT) begins tonight with a number of new rules being implemented for the first time. Earlier this year it was decided that teams selected to play in the NIT would compete using experimental rules which include a 30-second shot clock (down from the normal 35-second clock) and a 4-foot restricted area arc (up from 3 feet).

In an article posted to Covers earlier today, Jason Logan interviewed The Sports Club founder Peter Korner who claimed that these rule changes would not impact the total. “What’s five seconds? Most shots are taken within in the first 30 seconds of the shot clock anyways. We went with the same stats and averages. At this point, there’s nothing you can do. How many possessions actually go the full 35 seconds? I don’t think there will be much difference.”

This analysis proved to be painfully wrong, as the average NIT total rose by 8.5-points at CRIS. The table below displays the opening total for every game along with the total at the time of publication. For the latest odds, make sure to check out our free College Basketball odds page.

Visitor Home Opening Total Current Total Difference
NC Central Miami (FL) 118 128.5 10.5
Iona Rhode Island 143.5 154 10.5
Central Michigan Louisiana Tech 143 153 10
UC Davis Stanford 139.5 149.5 10
Montana Texas A&M 125 134 9
William & Mary Tulsa 132 139.5 7.5
George Washington Pittsburgh 127.5 134.5 7
Illinois Alabama 126.5 133.5 7
UTEP Murray State 144 149 5

Yesterday’s CIT game between New Hampshire and NJIT, which also featured a shortened shot clock, saw the teams combine for 161 points. That figure is 29.5-points higher than the closing total of 131.5. Although it’s only one game, it will be interesting to see if today’s action sees the same type of high scores.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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