NFL Week 13 Betting Recap
-In Week 13 underdogs went 9-7 pushing their season record to 96-91 ATS. Home teams went 11-5 ATS in Week 13 and are now 97-87 ATS on the season. Contrarian betting was once again profitable with teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets going 9-7 ATS.
– On October 10th, Bovada posted a prop bet asking whether Johnny Manziel would start a game during the 2014 NFL season. The odds were essentially a coin flip with “Yes” listed at -130 and “No” listed at -110. Last week Johnny Manziel replaced a struggling Brian Hoyer, but the Browns Week 14 starting QB is currently undecided.
Most bet NFL games: 1. Packers-Patriots 2. Redskins-Colts 3. Broncos-Chiefs
— SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) November 30, 2014
– This season the Indianapolis Colts (9-3), Kansas City Chiefs (8-4), Arizona Cardinals (8-4) and Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) have been the best teams against the spread. However, the Cardinals are 5-1 ATS with Carson Palmer starting and just 3-3 ATS with Drew Stanton behind center.
– After losing to the Green Bay Packers, the New England Patriots have fallen behind the Denver Broncos for the best Super Bowl Futures of any AFC team.
— SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) December 2, 2014
– Teasers and pleasers have become increasingly popular among NFL bettors, but buyer beware. Teasing 6.5-point favorites down to (essentially) a pick ’em has not been a profitable strategy.
Teasing 6.5-point NFL Favorites down to -0.5 is 87-53, 62.1%. The breakeven point for 2-team 6-point teasers is 72.4% — Bet Labs Software (@Bet_Labs) December 1, 2014
– Although this weekend’s Packers/Patriots game went under its closing total of 57 (final score 26-21), Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady remain two of the most profitable “Over” quarterbacks.
In the last 5 seasons, NFL games with Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers have gone over the total 63.1% of the time including 17-5 this season.
— Bet Labs Software (@Bet_Labs) November 30, 2014
– Most lopsided bet Week 12 games:
- Giants -3 at Jaguars (82% of spread bets)
- Colts -7.5 vs. Redskins (76% of spread bets)
- Bengals -5.5 at Buccaneers (76% of spread bets)
- Broncos +1 vs. Chiefs (73% of spread bets)
- Rams -6.5 vs. Raiders (73% of spread bets)
– Most popular Week 12 teasers/pleasers
- Giants 89%
- Colts 85%
- Bengals 84%
- Rams 82%
- Texans 79%
– NFL Week 14 current lines at BetOnline versus preseason lines:
- Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (+3.5 | -4.5)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-9.5 | -6)
- Houston Texans (-5 | -4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Indianapolis Colts (-3.5 | -1) at Cleveland Browns
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5 | -3)
- Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-3 | pick ‘em)
- St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins (+2.5 | -2.5)
- New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5 | -2)
- Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5 | -3.5)
- New York Giants (pick ’em | -1) at Tennessee Titans
- Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5 | -2)
- Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (-10 | -11.5)
- San Francisco 49ers (-8 | -7) at Oakland Raiders
- Seattle Seahawks (+1.5 | -1) at Philadelphia Eagles
- New England Patriots (-3.5 | -1) at San Diego Chargers
- Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-11.5 | -6.5)
– Largest discrepancies between current Pinnacle lines and preseason lines from CG Technologies:
- Cowboys: 8 points
- Saints: 6 points
- Rams: 5 points
- Packers: 5 points
- Buccaneers: 3.5 points
– Since 2003, teams coming off a loss have gone 325-275 ATS (+31.94 units) including a 25-18 ATS record this season. Last week there were 4 teams who lost by at least 20 points (Dallas, Tennessee, Washington and Oakland) and may be undervalued by bettors this week.
– Wondering whether the Seahawks 12th man is legit? According to our Bet Labs software Seattle has gone 61-38 ATS at home but just 42-55 ATS on the road.
– Most likely Super Bowl matchups (via 5Dimes)
- Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers +628
- New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers +683
- Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks +1145
- New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks +1240
- Denver Broncos vs Philadelphia Eagles +1865
- New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles +2010
- Indianapolis Colts vs Green Bay Packers +2950
- Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals +3150
- New England Patriots vs Arizona Cardinals +3400
- Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints +3600
- Cincinnati Bengals vs Green Bay Packers +3800
- New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints +3875
– Updated MVP Odds from Sportsbook.com (Last Week’s Odds)
- Aaron Rodgers -500 (-110)
- Peyton Manning +450 (+300)
- JJ Watt +1000 (+2000)
- Tom Brady +1200 (+1200)
- Andrew Luck +1500 (+1200)
- DeMarco Murray +2500 (+1000)
- Rob Gronkowski +5000 (unchanged)
– You can view the latest odds and public betting trends on our free NFL odds page, but here are some key Week 13 injuries to monitor:
– For the latest news and injury updates, make sure to visit our free NFL injury page.
– NFL Divisional Odds via 5Dimes
- AFC East: Patriots -5000 | Field +2500
- AFC North: Bengals -165 | Steelers +480 | Ravens +500 | Browns +800
- AFC South: Colts -7000 | Field +3000
- AFC West: Broncos -1000 | Chargers +975 | Chiefs +2000
- NFC East: Eagles -280 | Field +240
- NFC North: Packers -650 | +475
- NFC South: Saints -230 | Falcons +225 | Panthers +2000 | Buccaneers +50000
- NFC West: Seahawks -120 | Cardinals +150 | 49ers +775
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