NFL Week 13 Betting Recap

-In Week 13 underdogs went 9-7 pushing their season record to 96-91 ATS. Home teams went 11-5 ATS in Week 13 and are now 97-87 ATS on the season. Contrarian betting was once again profitable with teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets going 9-7 ATS.

– On October 10th, Bovada posted a prop bet asking whether Johnny Manziel would start a game during the 2014 NFL season. The odds were essentially a coin flip with “Yes” listed at -130 and “No” listed at -110. Last week Johnny Manziel replaced a struggling Brian Hoyer, but the Browns Week 14 starting QB is currently undecided.

– This season the Indianapolis Colts (9-3), Kansas City Chiefs (8-4), Arizona Cardinals (8-4) and Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) have been the best teams against the spread. However, the Cardinals are 5-1 ATS with Carson Palmer starting and just 3-3 ATS with Drew Stanton behind center.


– After losing to the Green Bay Packers, the New England Patriots have fallen behind the Denver Broncos for the best Super Bowl Futures of any AFC team.

– Teasers and pleasers have become increasingly popular among NFL bettors, but buyer beware. Teasing 6.5-point favorites down to (essentially) a pick ’em has not been a profitable strategy.

– Although this weekend’s Packers/Patriots game went under its closing total of 57 (final score 26-21), Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady remain two of the most profitable “Over” quarterbacks.

– Most lopsided bet Week 12 games:

  1. Giants -3 at Jaguars (82% of spread bets)
  2. Colts -7.5 vs. Redskins (76% of spread bets)
  3. Bengals -5.5 at Buccaneers (76% of spread bets)
  4. Broncos +1 vs. Chiefs (73% of spread bets)
  5. Rams -6.5 vs. Raiders (73% of spread bets)

– Most popular Week 12 teasers/pleasers

  1. Giants 89%
  2. Colts 85%
  3. Bengals 84%
  4. Rams 82%
  5. Texans 79%

– NFL Week 14 current lines at BetOnline versus preseason lines:

  1. Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (+3.5 | -4.5)
  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-9.5 | -6)
  3. Houston Texans (-5 | -4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
  4. Indianapolis Colts (-3.5 | -1) at Cleveland Browns
  5. Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5 | -3)
  6. Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-3 | pick ‘em)
  7. St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins (+2.5 | -2.5)
  8. New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5 | -2)
  9. Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5 | -3.5)
  10. New York Giants (pick ’em | -1) at Tennessee Titans
  11. Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5 | -2)
  12. Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (-10 | -11.5)
  13. San Francisco 49ers (-8 | -7) at Oakland Raiders
  14. Seattle Seahawks (+1.5 | -1) at Philadelphia Eagles
  15. New England Patriots (-3.5 | -1) at San Diego Chargers
  16. Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-11.5 | -6.5)

– Largest discrepancies between current Pinnacle lines and preseason lines from CG Technologies:

  1. Cowboys: 8 points
  2. Saints: 6 points
  3. Rams: 5 points
  4. Packers: 5 points
  5. Buccaneers: 3.5 points

– Since 2003, teams coming off a loss have gone 325-275 ATS (+31.94 units) including a 25-18 ATS record this season. Last week there were 4 teams who lost by at least 20 points (Dallas, Tennessee, Washington and Oakland) and may be undervalued by bettors this week.

– Wondering whether the Seahawks 12th man is legit? According to our Bet Labs software Seattle has gone 61-38 ATS at home but just 42-55 ATS on the road.

– Most likely Super Bowl matchups (via 5Dimes)

  1. Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers +628
  2. New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers +683
  3. Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks +1145
  4. New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks +1240
  5. Denver Broncos vs Philadelphia Eagles +1865
  6. New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles +2010
  7. Indianapolis Colts vs Green Bay Packers +2950
  8. Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals +3150
  9. New England Patriots vs Arizona Cardinals +3400
  10. Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints +3600
  11. Cincinnati Bengals vs Green Bay Packers +3800
  12. New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints +3875

– Updated MVP Odds from Sportsbook.com (Last Week’s Odds)

  1. Aaron Rodgers -500 (-110)
  2. Peyton Manning +450 (+300)
  3. JJ Watt +1000 (+2000)
  4. Tom Brady +1200 (+1200)
  5. Andrew Luck +1500 (+1200)
  6. DeMarco Murray +2500 (+1000)
  7. Rob Gronkowski +5000 (unchanged)

– You can view the latest odds and public betting trends on our free NFL odds page, but here are some key Week 13 injuries to monitor:

NFL injuries Week 13

– For the latest news and injury updates, make sure to visit our free NFL injury page.

– NFL Divisional Odds via 5Dimes

  1. AFC East: Patriots -5000 | Field +2500
  2. AFC North: Bengals -165 | Steelers +480 | Ravens +500 | Browns +800
  3. AFC South: Colts -7000 | Field +3000
  4. AFC West: Broncos -1000 | Chargers +975 | Chiefs +2000
  5. NFC East: Eagles -280 | Field +240
  6. NFC North: Packers -650 | +475
  7. NFC South: Saints -230 | Falcons +225 | Panthers +2000 | Buccaneers +50000
  8. NFC West: Seahawks -120 | Cardinals +150 | 49ers +775

–  Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

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    David Solar

    David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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