NFL Week 11 Betting Recap

– Underdogs went 10-4 ATS in Week 11 moving their season record to 78-79 ATS. Home teams went 8-6 ATS in week 10 and are now 78-76 ATS on the year. It was also a nice week for contrarian betting with teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets posting a 9-5 ATS record.

– Fading teams following a win of at least 7-points has gone 55-42 ATS (+10.76 units, 11.1% ROI) this season. Fading teams following a win of at least 14-points has gone 37-25 ATS (+11.03 units, 17.8% ROI) this season.

– Texans QB Ryan Mallett, who had just 4 career passing attempts entering the weekend, got his first career start Sunday against the Browns. Bovada set the over/under on his passing yards at 210.5 and Mallett barely went over with 211 yards.

– Most popular Week 11 parlays/teasers:

  1. Broncos 91%
  2. Packers 80%
  3. Chargers 79%
  4. Patriots 79%

– Most popular Week 11 teams

  1. Broncos -8 | 82% of spread bets
  2. Packers -4.5 | 78% of spread bets
  3. Bears -3 | 73% of spread bets
  4. Saints -8.5 | 72% of spread bets

– The Patriots/Colts total closed at 59 — the highest O/U of the 2014 season – Overs are now 11-7 when the total closes above 56 since 2003.

– A team with a 75% win percentage or higher has never received less than 32% of spread bets this late in the season. The Eagles (+4.5) received just 22% of spread bets this weekend against the Packers but lost 53-20.

– The Broncos (+8), who were easily the most popular team among bettors this week, lost to the Rams 22-7. St. Louis closed at +325 on the moneyline.

– Since ’03, Peyton Manning is 40-40 ATS in domed stadiums, 54-27 ATS in all other venues. (DEN -10 on the road in St Louis and did not cover, lost outright) 

– Since last week the odds of Aaron Rodgers winning the 2014 MVP Award have moved from +350 to -110 — leapfrogging Peyton Manning in the process. Oddly, Tom Brady has dropped from +400 to +1200 despite his team’s impressive victory over the Colts on Sunday night. – Current MVP odds at Sportsbook.com:

    1. Aaron Rodgers -110
    2. Peyton Manning +300
    3. DeMarco Murray +1000
    4. Andrew Luck +1200
    5. Tom Brady +1200
    6. JJ Watt +2500
    7. Jamaal Charles +2500
    8. Ben Roethlisberger +5000
    9. Jordy Nelson +5000
    10. Marshawn Lynch +5000
    11. Rob Gronkowski +5000
    12. Antonio Brown +10000
    13. Demaryius Thomas +10000
    14. Dez Bryant +10000
    15. Russell Wilson +10000
    16. Tony Romo +10000

– The Patriots have better odds of winning the Super Bowl than the Broncos; however, the most likely Super Bowl matchup does not feature New England. Here are the most likely Super Bowl matchups at 5Dimes:

  1. Broncos/Packers +879
  2. Patriots/Packers +909
  3. Broncos/Cardinals +1890
  4. Patriots/Cardinals +1950
  5. Broncos/Seahawks +2230
  6. Patriots/Seahawks +2300
  7. Broncos/49ers +2575
  8. Patriots/49ers +2675
  9. Chiefs/Packers +2900
  10. Colts/Packers +3200

– NFL Week 12 opening lines at Pinnacle versus preseason lines:

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (-6 | -4) at Oakland Raiders
  2. Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-13.5 | -12)
  3. Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-2| pick ‘em)
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-5.5| -6)
  5. New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-4 | -2.5)
  6. Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons (-3 | -7)
  7. Green Bay Packers (-10 | -4.5) at Minnesota Vikings
  8. Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-11 | -7)
  9. Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (-6.5| -6)
  10. St. Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers (-6.5 | -4)
  11. Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-7 | -10.5)
  12. Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers (-8 | -8.5)
  13. Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (-7.5 | -10)
  14. Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-3 | -2.5)
  15. Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints (-3.5 | -6.5)

– You can view the latest odds and public betting trends on our free NFL odds page.

– Key Week 12 Injuries:

  1. Broncos RB Montee Ball, Groin, Out
  2. Broncos WR Emmanuel Sanders, Concussion, Questionable
  3. Broncos TE Julius Thomas, Ankle, Questionable
  4. Lions WR Calvin Johnson, Elbow, Probable
  5. Lions RB Reggie Bush, Ankle, Probable
  6. Bills RB Fred Jackson, Groin, Probable
  7. Browns WR Josh Gordon, Disciplinary, Probable
  8. Texans RB Arian Foster, Groin, Questionable
  9. Bengals RB Giovani Bernard, Hip, Questionable

– For the latest news and injury updates, make sure to visit our free NFL injury page.

– Earlier this season we wrote an article for ESPN which detailed why NFL bettors should take small NFL road dogs on the moneyline instead of the spread. The system detailed in the piece boasts a 14-13 record this season with +11.75 units won and a 44% ROI.

– Yesterday we updated an article which projects win totals for every NFL team. The Cardinals are the only team who have already settled their season win total by going over 7.5 wins. The New Orleans Saints would need to win out to push their preseason projection, while any other outcome would results in an under.

– This season our NFL Best Bets have gone 28-23 ATS (+2.74 units) while our College Football Best Bets have gone 58-43 ATS (+9.66 units). Receive these plays along with real-time odds from 40+ sportsbooks, public betting trends from 7 contributing sportsbooks and much more by signing up for a 4-day trial of Sportsbook Insider Pro.

– Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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