NFL Week 10 Betting Recap
– The Bengals loss on the Browns on Thursday night dropped their record to 6-14 ATS in night games since 2003. Oddly enough, they boast an incredible 19-6 ATS record when playing at 4 PM Eastern Time.
– With their victory over the Rams on Sunday, the Arizona Cardinals (8-1) became the first team to clinch a season win total, going over their total.
– Yesterday we posted an article in which we recalculated our NFL win total projections based on the results to date.
– Teams getting 25% or fewer of teaser bets are 43-18 (70.5%) on the tease. Prior to this past week, teams getting 75% or more of teaser bets were 35-24 (59.3%).
– Odds on highest scoring team (via Sportsbook.com): DEN +400, GB +450, NO +750, SEA +750, BAL +1000, PIT +1000, DAL +1000, ARZ +1200, ATL +1500, DET +1500, CHI +1800, SF +2000, TB +2000, KC +2000, NYJ +2000, MIA +2500, BUF +3000, OAK +5000, STL+10000, NYG +10000, TEN +15000. The Packers (+450) scored 55 points against Chicago to lead all teams in Week 10 scoring.
– Most popular Week 10 parlays/teasers:
- Denver 93%
- Pittsburgh 88%
- Green Bay 87%
– Most popular bets this weekend:
- Broncos -13 | 85% of spread bets
- Steelers -4.5 | 79% of spread bets
- Cowboys -7.5 | 74% of spread bets
- Falcons -3.5 | 72% of spread bets
– Favorites went 9-4 ATS in Week 10 moving their season record to 75-68. Home teams went 7-5 ATS in week 10 and are now 70-70 ATS on the year. It was also a terrible week for contrarian betting with teams receiving less than 50% of spread bets posting a 3-10 ATS record.
– The over went 7-6 in Week 10 and is now 78-68 on the year. Also noteworthy is that no over has received less than 40% of public bets all season.
– Each week former Caesars oddsmaker Todd Fuhrman tweets out the teams being pounded by sharp money and the teams being hammered by the less-informed public. This week the Pros went 1-4 ATS while the Joes went 2-1 ATS.
— Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) November 9, 2014
Most bet NFL games: 1. Steelers-Jets 2. Broncos-Raiders 3. 49ers-Saints 4. Bears-Packers — SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) November 9, 2014
– The Jets upset the Steelers on Sunday, but Michael Vick is still just 42-50 ATS as a starter.
– It was a great weekend for square bettors but an awful weekend for sportsbooks:
– NFL teams that saw their playoff chances improve the most this week:
- Chiefs +17.1 to 68%
- 49ers +10.1 to 37%
- Ravens +8.6 to 51.1%
– NFL teams that saw their playoff chances decrease the most yesterday:
- Steelers -15.3 to 57%
- Bills -8.8 to 10.9%
- Dolphins -8.7 to 38.3%
– MVP odds movement since last week at Sportsbook.com:
- Peyton Manning +220 to +200
- Aaron Rodgers +500 to +350
- Tom Brady +400 (unchanged)
- Andrew Luck +700 to +600
- DeMarco Murray +1000 to +1500
- Ben Roethlisberger +800 to +2500
- Russell Wilson +2500 (unchanged)
- Rob Gronkowski N/A to +4000
- Drew Brees +2500 to +5000
- Philip Rivers +5000 (unchanged)
NFL Futures at 5Dimes: Broncos +350 Packers +725 Patriots +750 Seahawks +840 Colts +1400 Eagles +1500 Cardinals +1800 Lions & 49ers +1900 — SportsInsights.com (@SportsInsights) November 11, 2014
– Most likely Super Bowl matchups via 5Dimes:
- Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks +985
- Denver Broncos vs. Green Bay Packers +1050
- New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks +1755
- New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers +1865
- Denver Broncos vs. Arizona Cardinals +1995
- Denver Broncos vs. Philadelphia Eagles +1995
- Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers +2260
- Denver Broncos vs. Detroit Lions +2525
- Denver Broncos vs. Dallas Cowboys +2775
- Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints +2775
– Just days after signing a 3-year extension worth $50 million, Cardinals QB Carson Palmer suffered a season ending knee injury and will be replaced by Drew Stanton. Other key injuries for Week 11 include:
- Texans RB Arian Foster, Groin, Probable
- Bears WR Brandon Marshall, Ankle, Probable
- Lions RB Reggie Bush, Ankle, Questionable
- Broncos RB Montee Ball, Groin, Probable
- Panthers DE Charles Johnson, Arm, Questionable
- 49ers LB Patrick Willis, Toe, Questionable
- 49ers DE Aldon Smith, Disciplinary, Probable
- Bengals RB Giovani Bernard, Hip, Questionable
- Browns TE Jordan Cameron, Concussion, Questionable
– For the latest news and injury updates, make sure to visit our free NFL injury page.
– NFL Week 11 opening lines at Pinnacle versus preseason lines:
- Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-5 | -3.5)
- Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3 | -7)
- Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (pick ’em | -4)
- Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3 | -1.5)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (-7 | -2.5)
- Denver Broncos (-9 | -4.5) at St. Louis Rams
- San Francisco 49ers (-3 | -3) at New York Giants
- Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (-6 | -4)
- Seattle Seahawks (pick ’em | -2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
- Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4 | -4.5)
- Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10 | -8)
- Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5 | -2.5)
- New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5 | -1)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-5 | -2) at Tennessee Titans
– You can view the latest odds and public betting trends on our free NFL odds page,
– This season our NFL Best Bets have gone 27-20 ATS (+4.84 units) while our College Football Best Bets have gone 55-40 ATS (+9.94 units). Receive these plays along with real-time odds from 40+ sportsbooks, public betting trends from 7 contributing sportsbooks and much more by signing up for a 4-day trial of Sportsbook Insider Pro.
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