NFL 2017: Week 3 Opening Line Report
Another week is in the books and we’re on to week 3. This should be an interesting one, as we have our first London game of the year (12+ hours of football!), the Browns as favorites, and a bunch of home dogs.
All games are on the board now with the exception of Bucs Vikings due to the Sam Bradford injury situation. For comparison, I’ve added the lookahead lines from CG Technology posted back in April.
|Matchup||Bookmaker Current||Bookmaker Open||CG Tech Lookahead|
|LAR @ SF (Thursday)||LAR -2||LAR -3||SF -1.5|
|BAL vs. JAX (London)||BAL -3.5||BAL -4||BAL -1.5|
|CLE @ IND||CLE -1||CLE -2.5||IND -9.5|
|PIT @ CHI||PIT -7||PIT -8||PIT -5.5|
|MIA @ NYJ||MIA -5.5||MIA -6.5||MIA -2|
|DEN @ BUF||DEN -3||DEN -1||BUF -1|
|HOU @ NE||NE -13||NE -12||NE -9|
|NO @ CAR||CAR -6||CAR -6||CAR -3|
|TB @ MIN||N/A||N/A||MIN -3|
|ATL @ DET||ATL -3||ATL -3||ATL -1.5|
|NYG @ PHI||PHI -5.5||PHI -5.5||PHI -1|
|SEA @ TEN||TEN -3||TEN -1||SEA -2|
|KC @ LAC||KC -3||KC -3.5||KC -1.5|
|CIN @ GB||GB -9||GB -9||GB -7|
|OAK @ WAS||OAK -3||OAK -3.5||OAK -1|
|DAL @ ARI (Monday)||DAL -3||DAL -3.5||DAL -2|
Originally published 9/18
Ravens vs. Jaguars
London football…you either love it or you hate it. Generally, these games suck if we’re being honest, but at least you have some NFL to watch as you wake up in shambles Sunday morning searching for a glass of water.
At the moment, this game has the third most bets on the Sunday slate and has seen a bit of reverse line movement to boot.
Though the 2-0 Ravens are getting more than 70% of bets, cash is split in the early going and the line has moved from 4 to 3.5 as a result. Favorites have done well in London, though, going 11-6 ATS.
Broncos @ Bills
In the most lopsided game of the week early on, Denver visits Buffalo in what should be just a terrible football game for the casual viewer. Last night, the Broncos caught some eyes after they shut down Ezekiel Elliott and picked apart the Cowboys’ defense and bettors have a case of the recency bias as Denver is getting close to 90% of the bets early on.
The line graph for this game looks like a stairway to heaven…or stairwell to hell if you want to get satanic with it…as the Broncos have gradually moved from -1 to -3 at Bookmaker since opening. Last week, the Westgate opened with the Bills as -1.5 favorites, but flip-flopped the line when they re-opened yesterday.
Browns at Colts
Cleveland, what a city. You have the LeBron James led Cavs, an Indians squad that just rattled off over 20 straight wins, and a football team known as the Browns who are making headlines just because they are a favorite.
Bettors are having a hard time coping with this phenomenon, though, as the line is hardly holding up.
Dare I say it? Browns buyback? After the line quickly moved from 2.5 to a PK, Cleveland has clawed back at Bookmaker to stay a one point favorite. I’m afraid it won’t hold up for long, but savor this opportunity while you can. Usually if you’re watching a Browns line, you’re waiting for them to hit +7 or +10 or even +14. This week we will wait and see if they stay a favorite for the first time in a long time.
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