For all of you weekend warriors out there looking at this weekend’s NFL slate for the first time, here is what you need to know when making your bets.
There have been a couple of big line moves so far this week, with the biggest being in the Cleveland vs. Washington game and the Tennessee vs. Houston game. Earlier in the week, heavy public action on the Browns caused their line to move from +10 to +7.5 against the Redskins. That line has stayed put since that move, though, with Cleveland currently receiving about 54% of the bets.
Another thing to take note of is that Kirk Cousins has never covered the spread as a favorite.
— David Solar (@TheDavidSolar) September 27, 2016
Over the past week, the Texans have learned that they will be without their superstar, JJ Watt, for the rest of the season. After opening as 6.5 point favorites against the Titans, they have fallen to -4 over the past few days. Although the Titans are getting less than 40% of the spread bets, they are getting almost 50% of the spread dollars, suggesting that some sharp action has helped push that line.
For some more key line moves, take a look at this article. https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/2016-nfl-week-4-line-moves-that-matter/
JJ Watt- Out For The Season- back. Perhaps the best defensive player and one of the most exciting all-around players to watch in the league initially had some hope to play again this season when the injury was first announced, but was soon ruled out for the year later in the week.
Jimmy Garoppolo- Will Start Sunday- shoulder. Throughout the week, it was unclear whether Garoppolo or Jacoby Brissett, both dealing with injuries, would start in the last week before Tom Brady’s return. On Friday, it was announced that Garoppolo would be back after missing one week with a sprained shoulder. The Patriots opened at -6.5 and have moved to -7.5 at home against the Bills.
Sammy Watkins- Out Indefinitely- foot. The Bills star receiver was placed on IR and will be out at least eight weeks with a foot injury.
Dez Bryant- Out- Knee. Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott will be without his most dangerous weapon this Sunday and possibly longer. Bryant has been ruled out for this Sunday’s game with a hairline fracture in his knee and might be sidelined for an extended period of time.
Le’Veon Bell and Jamaal Charles- Probable. Two star running backs will both be making their season debuts against each other this Sunday when the Steelers host the Chiefs. Bell is coming back from a suspension, while Charles had been out with a knee injury.
Odds And Ends
For those of you with an ESPN Insider account, take a look at this piece written by our own content manager, David Solar.
The Eagles are already becoming a trendy team after their impressive start to the season, led by rookie QB Carson Wentz. Their Super Bowl odds have skyrocketed since the start of the season.
Since the preseason, the #Eagles odds of winning the Super Bowl have improved from +8000 to +1850 at 5Dimes.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) September 27, 2016
The first of three games in London this year will take place Sunday morning between the Jaguars and Colts. The Colts have moved from -1 to -2.5, one of the bigger moves of the week. Favorites have performed well in the small sample size across the pond so far.
FWIW, favorites have gone 9-5 ATS in NFL London games.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) September 28, 2016
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