NCAAF Game of the Week: Toledo at Iowa State

Last week in this space we explained why sharp money was taking Ole Miss as a home underdog in their marquee showdown with Alabama, and readers were rewarded when the Rebels pulled through with an unlikely 23-17 upset. This week we turn our attention to a game receiving significantly less media coverage, but one that offers great value to bettors nonetheless.

This Saturday (10/11) at 3:30 PM eastern time the Toledo Rockets (4-2, 3-0 MAC) will travel to Ames to face the Iowa State Cyclones (1-4, 0-3 Big 12). According to the public betting trends available on our free College Football odds page, Iowa State opened as a 6-point favorite at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook and are currently receiving 72% of spread bets. Despite this incredibly one-sided betting, the Cyclones have actually dropped 3-points from -6 to -3. This reverse line movement is an excellent indicator that sharp money is pounding the visiting Rockets.

The table below, which is available to Sportsbook Insider customers, shows how the Iowa State line has moved at Pinnacle throughout the week:

Iowa State Line Graph

In addition to having excellent contrarian value, there have been a number of additional sharp money indicators that should give bettors confidence when betting Toledo. There have been four bet signals triggered on this game including two profitable steam moves and a reverse line movement alert from BetUS.

Toledo Bet Signals

Bettors can receive these steam moves, reverse line movement alerts and contrarian plays along with our highly profitable Best Bets (33-24 ATS this season) by signing up for our Pro subscription.

It’s also interesting to note that Toledo fits the criteria for our 2014 College Football Betting Against the Public report which has produced a 215-177 ATS record (54.8%) with +27.33 units won and a 7% ROI. Bettors can copy this system from our Bet Labs Think Tank to receive all current game matches.


Worth noting is the fact that bettors continue to pound Toledo despite a key injury to running back Kareem Hunt. The sophomore running back, who has rushed for 527 yards on 59 carries this season, is currently listed as doubtful for Saturday’s game due to an ankle injury.

Sign up for our 4-day Pro trial to receive real-time odds and public betting data plus any picks and bet signals for this weekend’s slate of football action. If you have any questions or would like assistance with your account, please contact our customer service department at 877-838-2853, e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com, or utilize our live chat to speak directly with a representative.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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