In Saturday’s Liberty Bowl, Vanderbilt (6-6, 2-6) opened as a 1.5-point favorite at the market-setting Cris sportsbook and is currently receiving 65% of spread bets, according to Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Trends. Despite this slanted betting percentage, the line has dropped 1.5 points and is now a pick ‘em. This reverse line movement indicates that sharp bettors are taking Cincinnati (9-3, 5-2).
Furthering the case for Cincinnati are the system plays that have been triggered on the Bearcats. A number of smart money plays were triggered including one from Sportsbook.com (99-77, +13.3 units), which has been our second best college football smart money move this season.
The health of multiple key players on each team bears further attention. Zach Collaros, the Bearcats starting QB, is listed as probable with a leg injury. The senior signal caller has not played since November 12th against West Virginia, and would be replaced by Munchie Legaux if his status is downgraded.
For Vandy, the player to watch for is Warren Norman. The junior back has tallied 1242 rushing yards over the past two seasons, but is listed as doubtful having missed the last four games with a knee injury.
Although most sportsbooks have this game available as a pick ‘em, many books are still offering the Commodores at -1.5 while Carib has a line of -2.5 available. This again shows the value of keeping multiple books and exemplifies the importance of shopping the best line.
The following table shows the breakdown of spread betting percentages from our six contributing sportsbooks: