Identifying Sharp Money When Betting on the NFL
When it comes to wagering on any sport, bettors always want to know where the sharp or smart money is going. For years we have preached the value of betting against the public, and it has been incredibly profitable — just take a look at our vaunted 80/20 betting system. Square bettors love to pound the favorite while sharp bettors would simply wait for bookmakers to adjust their odds before taking the underdog at an artificially inflated price.
However, betting against the public is only one piece of the puzzle. These days, wise guys and betting syndicates spend years developing NFL betting systems based on advanced metrics and it’s these sharp bettors that move lines. But how do we identify where this smart money is going?
Over the years, reverse line movement has been one of the best sharp money indicators in the NFL. Reverse-line movement refers to betting line movement that contradicts the public betting percentages. For example, if the Patriots are receiving 80% of spread bets as a 14-point favorite against the Dolphins, you would expect the line to move to -14.5 or -15. If the line drops (to say, -13.5) it is a sure sign that smart money, or large wagers made by single individuals or betting syndicates, has come in on the Dolphins. You would immediately want to search for a sportsbook offering Miami +14 and quickly get down.
This method has been enormously successful over the years and is the backbone of our NFL smart money betting system.
Using our BetLabs software, we decided to look at the success of this reverse line movement using historical data dating back to 2003. We first used our spread percentage filter to look at a very basic contrarian strategy — specifically teams receiving less than 40% of spread bets. We then used our “spread change from open to close” filter to look at instances where a team became a bigger favorite or a smaller underdog, thus moving against the public betting percentages.
Even with such a simple filter, we saw that teams fitting these two criteria posted a record of 290-249 ATS with 25.82 units earned and a 4.8% return on investment (ROI). Over the past two seasons this system has been particularly profitable with a 75-57 record and an impressive 13.9% ROI.
But, it was when we focused on conference games that we saw the largest jump with a 225-183 record, +30.16 units won and a 7.4% ROI.
Identifying smart money is certainly one important aspect of being a sharp NFL bettor, but it’s only one piece of the puzzle. We would highly recommend visiting our Sports Betting Academy for more valuable sports betting tips and pointers.
The NFL season is still months away, but many sportsbooks have already posted their Week 1 lines which can be found on our NFL betting trends page. The New York Jets opened as 2.5 point underdogs and are receiving just 23% of spread bets, yet the line has dropped to +1, indicating early sharp money on this home dog. For that reason, we will continue to monitor this game as a potential best bet.
Do you have any questions for the team at Sports Insights? Are there any week 1 line moves that have intrigued you? Make sure to leave your thoughts in the comment section below.
Al07/19/2013 at 10:24 am
Totally understand how this works and why you want to know where the sharp money is. However, how do I know ? When I look at a line and whether its moving one way or another, I still dont know the percentages of what side the public is on and what side the sharps are on ?
PJ07/19/2013 at 10:28 am
Hi Al, we get betting percentages from 7 offshore sportsbooks that allow us and our members to track who the public is betting on. You can see some of those here:
Tom Somers07/19/2013 at 10:29 am
I agree that identifying smart money moves is important.
290-249 is 21 units earned, no? And then you have to subtract the 5-10% juice.
How do you calculate ROI?
PJ07/19/2013 at 11:01 am
The numbers in the article include juice already. Our archive uses opening and closing lines from Pinnacle, which explains why the total units won may differ from your sportsbook.
Regarding ROI, here is how you can calculate it:
TR07/19/2013 at 10:52 am
PJ – but how does the information you receive from sportsbooks allow you to track who the public is betting on…? In other words, how do the sportsbooks distinguish a ‘sharp’ from a ‘public square’? (And wouldn’t each sportsbook have it’s own way of doing that..?)
PJ07/19/2013 at 10:58 am
We combine our public betting percentages with line movement to determine where the sharp money is falling. Using the example in the article, let’s assume the Patriots are 14-point favorites over the Dolphins and are receiving 80% of spread bets. Normally, you’d expect that line to increase to -14.5 or -15 with so much action taking the Patriots as sportsbooks want to encourage more Dolphins money to balance their books.
However, if that line drops to -13.5 instead, that means there is actually more money (or more respected money) represented in the 20% of spread bets taking the Dolphins, forcing the books to move to -13.5 to actually encourage more bettors to take the Patriots, even though they’re already receiving 80% of spread bets.
TR07/19/2013 at 11:22 am
Appreciate the quick reply, PJ! I’m still struggling a bit to understand though… I asked how do you know where the public and squares are betting, and you replied that you combine the public betting percentages with line movement…
My question is about the step before that… how do you even know which bets are ‘public’ and which bets are ‘sharps’… (perhaps the Books tell you, but HOW do they know which is which?)
Alternatively, are the books giving you a breakdown of ‘sharp’ vs ‘public’… or are you assuming all info from the Books is ‘public’ and using your algorithms on how lines move to then determine sharps? Something else?
PJ07/19/2013 at 11:38 am
You don’t know which bet is square and which is sharp on a per bet level. Sportsbooks simply give us the percentage of the number of tickets on each side.
But we combine those with line movement to determine sharp vs. square. For instance, if the Patriots are getting 80% of bets at -14 and then line moves to -14.5, it’s safe to assume that a bunch of squares are on New England. If the line goes from -14 to -17, then you can assume both square and sharps are on New England.
But if the line drops to -13.5, then it’s safe to say the sharps like Miami.
There is no single, magic stat that tells you which individual bets are square and which are sharp. But by combining a handful of tools, you can determine which side the sharps are on for a handful of games each week.
TR07/19/2013 at 12:07 pm
Very helpful insights, PJ!
A few more clarifying questions: When you say “Sportsbooks simply give us the percentage of the number of tickets on each side.” does that mean a) 40% on the Pats at -14 and therefore obviously 60% on the Pats’ opponent at +14… or b) of the 40% of the bets on the Pats at -14, 80% are public and 20% are sharps? (If ‘b’, how do the SportsBooks themselves know which bets to group into which bucket?)
Next question: In your example about the Pats line being -14 and then moving to -13.5, you say it’s safe to assume the ‘sharps’ like Miami. Why is that a safe assumption? Wouldn’t a sizeable ‘public’ bet cause the same move? For instance, Joe Golucky could be at a bachelor party in Vegas and plunk down 10k on the Fins.. right?
— so how do you know the ‘sharps’ are moving the line, as opposed to just last-minute ‘public’ bets?
PJ07/19/2013 at 12:15 pm
Question 1: A) On our Live Odds page, we post the spread, moneyline, over/under and parlay/teaser betting percentages for each team/game. So right now, we have 56% in the spread % column for Baltimore and 44% for Denver (for the Thursday night kickoff game this season), so you know exactly where the action is coming in on each game.
Question 2: Most oddsmakers won’t move the line for one large, public bet. A square is a square to them, no matter the amount of money. Oddsmakers are more willing to move the line on a $5000 bet from a sharp bettor than they would for a $25000 bet from a square.
PJ07/19/2013 at 12:23 pm
I took a screenshot of our Live Odds page for today’s MLB action to show you how we display our betting percentage data:
shawn07/19/2013 at 4:31 pm
The public bets the favs they run line up for the experienced or pro[s theat look for good Dog plays that’s what I do.
Shaun11/06/2016 at 1:43 am
Great points in that article but a sharp bet does not have external variables like this article suggest at times . I see there are a lot of Qs being asking about the criteria, which is all fact and can be found any were.
A sharp bet is simply recognizing a trend.
The key to winning on sharp bets is patience. Not many can bet without their “gut” or patience.
Some bettors: simply stated; can win more by going with their gut.
For the long hall it never works unless you have a large enough bankroll and long enough streak where you get to the point where you are able to start selling picks to the average bettors on.
Finding a sharp bet is 100% fact and 100% finding a trend.
Sure the patriots can open up at a large number around -10 vs buffalo and go up to -14 by kick with 75% of bettors on the bills between +10-14, so the pats would certainly be the smart or sharp play.
However the kicker to this strategy is that it requires too much patience for too little return. The NFL has too much parody which pushes these facts together.
Sure I believe it will work in the long hall if you’re a robot with an infinite amount of money.
Have a pick in mind before looking at line trends. Email me for picks.
Frank Hamilton07/19/2013 at 11:06 am
When you post the percentage of bets on the game is it total number of bets or total dollar amount bet on the games? Seems to me the best percentage would come from games which might have 70-80% of the total bets placed on one side but have 70-80% of the money being bet on the other side. The ole want to fade the $100 players and side with the five dime guys.
PJ07/19/2013 at 11:11 am
Hi Frank, our betting percentages represent the total number of bets, not actual dollars on each side. We’d love the get that data, but sportsbooks are unwilling to provide it.
But in essence, this article explains how we combine betting percentages and line movement to determine where the big money is falling in these games.
TR07/19/2013 at 12:50 pm
PJ – thanks again – this is so insightful!
When you say “Oddsmakers are more willing to move the line on a $5000 bet from a sharp bettor than they would for a $25000 bet from a square.” do you have any knowledge on how the books themselves distinguish between ‘public’ and ‘sharp’? (Are the ‘sharps’ relatively famous and they books somehow know them already? Or is it more systematic, where a particular person has a “better than normal” winning percentage and therefore gets identified as a ‘sharp’?)
Also, it sounds like ‘sharps’ don’t want to be identified as ‘sharps’ as it could hamper their betting ability (lines would move, etc.)… I wonder to what extent ‘sharps’ would have people (runners?) placing bets on their behalf to throw off the appearance of being a ‘sharp’… sounds like a good movie in the making!
PJ07/19/2013 at 1:01 pm
Sportsbooks keep extensive records on the bettors who play there, so they know everything about players making big wagers. If a bettor wins consistently, they’ll get their limits lowered significantly and the book may even refuse to take their action.
And you’re 100% correct, sharp bettors want to remain as low key as possible.
I’d highly recommend reading a book called, “The Smart Money” by Michael Konik. He worked for one of the most successful betting syndicates in Vegas and goes into detail about the difficulties sharps go through in order to get down and how they have to stay out in front of the sportsbooks.
TR07/19/2013 at 1:26 pm
You just made my day! I’ve been asking people for years to recommend any books on “how the line setting business works” to get an ‘insider perspective… I’ll be reading that shortly…
Any other book recommendations?
PJ07/19/2013 at 1:44 pm
I also like “The Odds” by Chad Millman. Another combination of a good read and informative sports betting book.
mel07/19/2013 at 9:08 pm
but is it not true that some big bettors bet a certain way to move the line and then unload the other way?
PJ07/20/2013 at 6:01 am
That is certainly true, and you can track that as well by following line movement and Steam throughout the week.
Kerry Nettles07/20/2013 at 9:32 am
I have been learned the hard way about sharp betting. . Also about inflated lines. You have to also watch late line movement. That could possibly mean late information that possibly forced a sharp Bet
Greg07/27/2013 at 10:30 am
From my understanding by the time we receive the opening line, the sharps have already taken the advantage or value. For the small bettor you have to dedicate your life watching the lines & when they do move you have seconds not minutes to pull the trigger.
Thank you for the info.
john08/13/2013 at 12:36 pm
i ve used sportsinsights for years. the 1 thing that bothers me is that ive noticed that once the % s settle in, they very very seldom change % wise, in other words if a sports book says “the patriots are receiving 75 % of bets, that % very rarely changes alot, which i find hard to believe, any explaination ?
PJ08/13/2013 at 12:42 pm
It depends when you check during the week. Early in the week you’ll see fluctuations in the percentages. But as the week goes on, percentages settle in and don’t move drastically.
Remember, we get the percentages from 7 offshore sportsbooks, so once they’re all reporting, it takes significant changes from one book to move the entire market average.
It’s why we offer the individual percentages at each of the 7 books so you can see how the game is being bet at public books like SIA and Sportsbook.com as well as sharp books like 5Dimes and CRIS throughout the entire week.
We also archive those individual betting percentages in Bet Labs, so users can historically analyze the market percentage, or choose to analyze the percentages from just one of our seven contributing sportsbooks for profitable trends.
Dave S08/13/2013 at 12:43 pm
The higher the number of bets, the more late action it will take to significantly alter the betting percentages. Typically by late in the week, the percentages barely move because so many people have already placed their wagers.
Sports Betting05/28/2014 at 2:10 pm
This post is priceless. Where can I find out more?
Dave S05/28/2014 at 2:24 pm
You can view more NFL betting articles here: https://www.sportsinsights.com/nfl-football/
Patrick09/19/2014 at 10:22 am
My buddy and I are having a friendly but heated discussion about last night’s auburn-k state game. The line went from -9 to -7.5. I think that’s because a sharp went big with k state and -9. Line ended up at -7.5 and the final was Auburn 20-14. He is saying Vegas made a killing, I think they took a beating. His point is that Auburn was the more popular pick with the public, so then more money was wagered in auburn’s direction which ultimately did not cover. I’m saying that evidenced by that line dropping so big so quickly, more action was on k state late and they ultimately covered getting 7.5. What say u ?
David Solar09/19/2014 at 1:59 pm
This is a great example of Pros versus Joes as 68% of spread bettors took Auburn but the line dropped from -9 (open) to -7 (close) at Pinnacle. This is a sure sign that smart money, or large wagers made by single individuals or betting syndicates, came in on Kansas State. In all likelihood this means that although more bettors took Auburn, more money was on K-State.
Ohyougotit10/16/2014 at 11:31 am
OK, this is what I have already been using for making my plays. However, I am intrigued by what is happening this week. The Seattle Seahawks opened as 6.5 favorites and quickly went up to 7. With 94% of the money on them at this point, why is the line staying put? Does this indicate sharps betting? The same can be said for the Bengals and Colts game. The line opened at Colts -3 and with 94% of the action on the Colts it has not moved at all, opened at -3 and has stayed -3 all week, what gives?
David Solar10/16/2014 at 2:03 pm
Just to clarify, 94% of bets were taking Seattle — not 94% of the money. That number has since dropped to 90% and most sportsbooks have moved from Seahawks -6.5 to -7. There have been no bet signals triggered on Seattle which means this half-point move is solely due to public money and not any sort of sharp money.
For the Cin/Ind game, the Bengals +3 (receiving 16% of spread bets) have value due to our 80/20 betting system, but it looks like oddsmakers must be receiving a fairly even distribution of money since that line hasn’t moved despite this one-sided betting.
Charlie10/16/2015 at 10:23 pm
How much money will the sports books let you win before they cut you off
Shawn11/07/2015 at 10:27 am
Hi just curious but I know how to find what percentages are on each time but how do I find how much money or the percentage of money rather percentage of bets. Thanks.
David Solar11/07/2015 at 10:37 am
Most sportsbooks won’t divulge that information, although if you follow William Hill on twitter (@WilliamHillUS) they will occasionally share their ticket count and total dollars wagered.
AmandaS02/03/2016 at 5:33 am
I agree that identifying smart money moves is important. I am slowly understanding on how to calculate the ROI too.
Dave Payetta12/13/2016 at 1:38 am
why does the juice move instead of the line for some games?
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