Kansas at Kentucky: Where’s the sharp money going?

On Saturday afternoon #2 Kansas travels to #4 Kentucky in one of this season’s most anticipated matchups. Both teams are coming off losses with Kansas falling at West Virginia, and Kentucky narrowly losing against Tennessee.

Odds and Betting %’s: Kentucky opened -7 at Heritage and very early tickets were on Kansas, moving the line to -5.5 within a couple hours. Kentucky opened -5.5 at 5Dimes and dropped to -5 by Friday afternoon. After the move, money started coming in on Kentucky to push the line up, hitting -7.5 at 5Dimes by Friday night. Most of the market also moved Kentucky to -7 where the line currently stands, but Pinnacle still lists Kentucky -7.5. Since Pinnacle is a market-setting sportsbook that takes professional bettors, their odds suggest sharp money on Kentucky.

The betting percentages are fairly even, with 52% of tickets and 52% of money on Kansas in the most bet game of the day. The line graph below shows the spread betting pattern on Kansas since opening at Heritage:

We haven’t triggered any bet signals on the spread yet, but we have triggered a very profitable move on the total so far, available exclusively to Pro members.

We also have a current line prediction on Kentucky, forecasting with 83% confidence that Kentucky will move to -7.5 around the market upon the next line move. If you like Kentucky, you should probably take them while you can at -7 before the line moves up throughout the market.

Notes: Kansas will be without sophomore forward Carlton Bragg Jr, who has been suspended indefinitely for violating team rules. Bragg is averaging 6.1 ppg and 4.8 rpg and although he’s been a bit underwhelming this season, Kansas will be thin in the paint without him.

Kansas is just 1-4 ATS on the road this year while Kentucky is 8-3 ATS at home. Kansas has struggled all year ATS at 6-12 while Kentucky is a solid 12-8.

In last season’s meeting, Kansas beat Kentucky 90-84 on the Jayhawks’ home court, barely covering the closing line of -5.5.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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