Game 7 Preview: Lightning/Rangers and Blackhawks/Ducks

Both the Western and Eastern Conference Finals have extended to 7 games in the same year for just the third time in NHL history (1964, 2000). On Friday night the Rangers will take on the Lightning in New York and Saturday night the Ducks will look to close out the Blackhawks in Anaheim.

Game 7 Opening Lines (CRIS):

Rangers -145 vs. Lightning +125       |   Total 5
Ducks -135 vs. Blackhawks +115       |   Total 5 (o-135)

Line moves and trends (CRIS):

Rangers have moved from -145 to -160 and are getting nearly 75% of moneyline bets.
Ducks have remained at -135 since opening despite getting only 40% of moneyline bets.

Game 7 records since 2005:

Rangers 6-1, +4.05 units
Lightning 2-1, +0.75 units
Blackhawks 2-2, -0.29 units
Ducks 1-3, -1.35 units

Game 7 betting trends since 2005:

Filter Record Units Won
Visitors 21-21 +8.75
Underdogs 19-23 +4.92
Favored in Previous Game 24-18 +6.21
Won Previous Game 23-19 +8.46
Unders 21-14-7 +4.34

Something that we’ve focused on over the last couple seasons is the lack of goals in Game 7’s. Unders are now 21-14-7 since 2005 in these series-clinching games and we’ve highlighted potential factors before: In addition to teams possibly being more focused and defensive-minded, referees historically call fewer penalties in Game 7 of a series, which on average results in fewer power plays and goals. The total for this year’s Eastern Semifinal Game 7 between the Capitals-Rangers was 4.5 but with both of these games listed at a total of 5, there’s potentially value on the under.

Stanley Cup Odds throughout the season:

Team May 28 May 16 May 11 Apr 30 Apr 12 Mar 3 Jan 5 Nov 21 July 19
Rangers +202 +233 +465 +330 +650 +1400 +2200 +2300 +1600
Ducks +248 +263 +228 +435 +800 +800 +850 +775 +1200
Blackhawks +295 +253 +243 +500 +875 +700 +750 +700 +550
Lightning +455 +378 +553 +750 +1050 +1100 +1250 +1200 +1800

It’s interesting to note that the Rangers have been the Cup favorites at most points over the last couple months, but the Ducks, Blackhawks and Lightning all had better odds of winning the Cup throughout the season.

Additional Notes:

– Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist has won 6 straight Game 7’s, an NHL record

– Rangers are 15-3 in elimination games in the last 4 postseasons and have won 10 straight at home in elimination games. They’re also 7-0 all-time in Game 7’s at home.

You can keep up with all the latest odds and trends at our Free Live Odds page, where you can also sign up for our newsletter to be alerted whenever a new blog post is published.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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