FSU Attracting Lots of Public Action Against Alabama
The biggest matchup for the College Football opening weekend is undoubtedly Alabama vs. FSU. The game will be played September 2nd in Atlanta, Georgia on neutral turf, and both teams should have plenty of fans in the stadium. Alabama is once again expected to be a juggernaut this year, but the season opener against the Seminoles will be crucial. For instance, you can actually bet on whether Alabama will win every game this season by double-digits at 35/1 odds.
How good will #Alabama be this season? They’re expected to outscore regular season foes by 299.5 points.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) July 3, 2017
Back in early January, sportsbooks began posting odds for this massive game. 5Dimes opened Alabama -4 while Westgate actually opened Alabama -3.5. These lines were clearly too low and since then, sharp action has driven the line up to Alabama -7/-7.5 around the market.
The majority of tickets (55%) have come in on the FSU spread, but the majority of money (82%) has been on the Alabama spread. The game is being bet more than any other NCAAF Week 1 game on the board, and it’s not very close:
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) August 5, 2017
Alabama is a very solid 22-13 ATS when getting <50% of tickets under Nick Saban. Following the sharp money is great, but unfortunately you won’t find lines as good as Alabama -3.5 or -4 anymore. This signifies the importance of our Line Watcher and Line Prediction features which help bettors get the best line possible. You don’t want to find yourself betting Alabama -7.5 just because sharp bettors took Alabama at better odds (like -3.5 or -4).
At this point, it will be interesting to see how many books move Alabama off -7. If they move up to -7.5, then sharp bettors will take notice on FSU. If they move down to -6.5, we could see more sharp action on Alabama.
Alabama has received the most money wagered to win the National Championship at Nevada-based sportsbooks MGM, William Hill and Westgate. Public bettors along with big, sharp money are willing to take the best team in the country despite the short price. There are opportunities to fade the public on futures, but this wouldn’t be one of them.