Fallout From Andrew Luck’s Latest Injury

It’s been a tough season for the Indianapolis Colts. After opening the season with the third-best odds of winning the Super Bowl (+800) and the best odds of winning their division (-350), the Colts have posted a record of just 4-5 including near losses to perennial cellar dwellers Tennessee and Jacksonville.

Franchise quarterback Andrew Luck has also been a colossal disappointment, throwing 12 interceptions in 7 games with a completion percentage of just 55.3% — the worst since his rookie season. Part of these struggles have been injury related, as Luck missed two games in early October due to a sore shoulder (backup Matt Hasselbeck posted a 2-0 record in those games).

Despite these struggles the Colts’ odds of winning the AFC South had actually improved, moving from -350 to -500 at BetOnline. Their Super Bowl odds on the other hand had dropped substantially, falling from +750 to +2800.

Controversy also surrounded the team following Jay Glazer’s report on November 1, which indicated that Luck had been playing with multiple fractured ribs since Week 3. The NFL’s injury report says that “all players with significant or noteworthy injuries must be listed on the report,” although general manager Ryan Grigson denied that the team had committed a violation.

On Tuesday (11/11) afternoon, it was announced that Andrew Luck had suffered a lacerated kidney after being sandwiched by Broncos LB Danny Trevathan and DE Vance Walker.

Fortunately the Colts are on their bye week, but many experts believe that Luck’s prognosis is somewhat optimistic and that there’s no way he’ll be available in two weeks. In all probability, Luck will miss at least one month and quite possibly more.

Looking at the futures market, this news caused the Colts odds of winning the Super Bowl to drop from +2800 to +3300 while their divisional odds dipped from -500 to -400.

Colts Futures

Looking ahead, the Colts are listed as a pick ’em in their December 27th “Game of the Year” matchup with the Dolphins. We can conclude that the line assumes Luck will be starting, but it’s interesting because this is the same line that CG Technology posted before the start of the season.

During the preseason, Luck (+300) was listed as the favorite to win the NFL MVP Award. Just one month into the season he had dropped to +5000 and this injury has taken him off the board entirely. It’s also interesting to note that prior to the start of the season, Luck’s over/under was 4,400 yards, 34.5 touchdowns and 15.5 interceptions. Although it’s now impossible to hit the over for yards or touchdowns, it’s still entirely possible that he will throw another 4 interceptions for the over.

If you’re holding an under ticket on the Colts win total, you’re likely smiling about this news. The Colts win total this season was set at 11, meaning they would need to go 7-0 down the stretch in order to push.

Make sure to bookmark our free NFL odds page for the latest lines, public betting trends, injuries, futures and more. Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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