Deshaun Watson Worth Nearly A Touchdown To Texans
On Thursday afternoon, the football world got terrible news that QB Deshaun Watson tore his ACL in practice and will miss the remainder of the season. Watson was off to an incredible start in his rookie year, throwing for 1,699 yards and 19 touchdowns while adding 270 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground. Houston went 5-1 ATS with Watson starting after he took over for Tom Savage in the 2nd half of their opening day loss to Jacksonville. They’ll now turn back to Savage to lead the way.
Sunday’s game against the Colts was quickly taken off the board with the line Houston -13. The betting market shortly re-opened odds at Houston -6.5, while dropping the total all the way from 51.5 to 44.5 at CRIS.
Public bettors changed their tune on Houston even with the odds drop– they’re now getting 43% of tickets compared to 71% of bets before the injury at -13. Sharper bettors were very quick to grab -6.5 though, and Houston is now -7 at both CRIS and Pinnacle. This means his value to the spread is around 6 to 6.5 points considering the drop-off to Savage.
The O/U has also been adjusted again, up from 44.5 to 46 which is still the 3rd highest total on the board this week. With Houston a substantial favorite and a relatively high total, this game could make for some great contrarian DFS spots on guys like Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins.
The guys over at Bet Labs have adjusted Houston from 11th to 24th in overall power ratings. The betting market seems to agree– shortly after the news, the Texans moved from 40/1 to 100/1 at Westgate to win Super Bowl 52, and from 20/1 to 50/1 to win the AFC. Since Houston’s odds increased, the Jaguars’ Super Bowl odds got better from 50/1 to 40/1.
Looking further back, Houston’s Super Bowl odds improved from 40/1 to 30/1 at Westgate after they drafted Watson, showing how impactful the betting market thought he was before even playing a down. Their win total was listed at either 8 or 8.5 prior to the year, and that Over could be tough to hit now with Houston sitting at 3-4.
There are no updated odds on other futures/props yet, but Watson had been the -1000 favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year and +1000 to win NFL MVP. Only 4 other players had MVP odds better than 20/1 (Brady, Wentz, Wilson and Smith) prior to the injury.