Bryce Harper Injury Fallout

Bryce Harper Injury Fallout

On Saturday night, Nationals fans held their breath in unison as their superstar right fielder Bryce Harper landed awkwardly on his leg after slipping on first base. On Sunday morning, the MRI revealed that there was no ligament damage, but there was a significant bone bruise in his knee that would sideline him for an indefinite amount of time.

As expected, World Series and pennant odds were originally taken off the board. However, they essentially didn’t move when re-opened at the sharp offshore book 5Dimes. Before the severity of his injury was announced on Sunday morning, the Nats were +635 to win the World Series. On Tuesday, they were +650 — just a 0.28% worse implied probability. If they expected Harper to miss the playoffs, you can bet your bottom dollar that their odds would be significantly worse than that.

It honestly doesn’t matter to Washington if Harper has to miss most of the remaining regular season. They are basically already locked in to their spot in the playoffs. They can’t catch the Dodgers so they don’t need to worry about the first seed and home-field advantage. They also won’t be caught by the winner of the NL Central and will therefore be almost guaranteed to have home field advantage in the NLDS and in all likelihood, face the Cubs. It seems like the books are thinking the same way unless news comes out that the injury is worse than expected and he will miss part (or all) of the playoffs.

From an individual standpoint, Harper’s hopes of winning another MVP this season are significantly hurt. He had been the -145 favorite to win the award before his injury and re-opened on Wednesday morning at +500 — third best odds in the NL behind Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

PlayerPaddyPower (11/8)BetOnline (8/16)BetOnline (8/8)BetOnline (7/17)BetOnline (6/26)BetOnline (6/6)Westgate (5/8)Westgate (4/24)Westgate (3/20)3/19 (5Dimes)3/19 (Bovada)
Giancarlo Stanton+110+1000N/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+3000+1000+8000+3300
Paul Goldschmidt+200+165+250+200+150+350+3000+3000+1500+3300+2500
Joey Votto+200+1200+3300+750+4000+2000+20000+10000+10000+3300+3300
Nolan ArenadoN/A+200+450+1000+400+500+1000+400+400+775+700
Bryce HarperN/A+500-145+200+500+250+140+100+400+350+300
Cody BellingerN/A+1400+3300+1200+600N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Anthony RendonN/A+2500+2500+1400+3300+2000+50000+50000+10000+9000N/A
Corey SeagerN/A+3300+3300+1000+1400+2000+1200+1200+600+1600+1200
Justin TurnerN/A+3300+3300+1000+5000+2000+10000+10000N/A+3300N/A
Charlie BlackmonN/A+3300+3300+1600+600+1400+30000+30000N/AN/A+10000
Daniel MurphyN/A+10000+10000+2000+4000+3300+2000+2500+5000+2500+2200
Kris BryantN/AN/A+10000+2500+1200+650+300+400+250+300+275
Anthony RizzoN/AN/A+10000+2500+1800+3300+1800+1500+1200+1200+900
Ryan ZimmermanN/AN/A+20000+2500+1200+1400+400+8000N/AN/AN/A
Zack CozartN/AN/AN/A+10000+3300+1400N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Buster PoseyN/AN/AN/A+10000+6600+2500+30000+10000+10000+4000+3300
Michael ConfortoN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+2500N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Eric ThamesN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+5000+1000+1200+50000N/AN/A
Adam DuvallN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000+8000+10000+15000N/A
Marcell OzunaN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000+8000N/AN/AN/A
Clayton KershawN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+2500+1500+1500N/A+3300
Matt CarpenterN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000+30000+10000+6600+5000
Wil MyersN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000+30000+10000+9000N/A
Yoenis CespedesN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+1500+1000+4000+3300
Ryan BraunN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000+20000+10000+9000+10000
Carlos GonzalezN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000+30000+10000+6600+6600
Christian YelichN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000+30000N/A+9000+10000
Freddie FreemanN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+800+1800+10000+1600+1400
Brandon CrawfordN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000+30000+20000N/AN/A
Jake LambN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+30000N/AN/AN/AN/A
Kyle SchwarberN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+8000+4000+3300+3300
Hunter PenceN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+30000+20000+9000N/A
Trea TurnerN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+6000+10000+5000+5000+5000
Maikel FrancoN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+50000+10000+9000+10000
Adrian GonzalezN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+30000+10000+5000+5000
Trevor StoryN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+50000+5000N/AN/A
Matt KempN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+50000+20000N/A+10000
Joc PedersonN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+50000+20000+9000N/A
Ian DesmondN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+100000+20000+5000N/A
Tommy JosephN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+100000+100000+20000N/AN/A
Noah SyndergaardN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+3000N/AN/AN/A
Gregory PolancoN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+9000N/A
Billy HamiltonN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000N/A
AJ PollockN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+9000+10000
Javier BaezN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+6600N/A
Max ScherzerN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+3300
Addison RussellN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000
DJ LemahieuN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000
Adam EatonN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000
Jonathan VillarN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+8000+10000
Starling MarteN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+6600+5500
Jay BruceN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+10000+20000N/AN/A
Andrew McCutchenN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+50000+50000+10000+5250+3300

Although he hasn’t been ruled out by the oddsmakers, I would be very surprised if his odds don’t get worse as each week goes by that he is out. With so many other players having great seasons, it’s tough to make the case that Harper deserves the award if he misses a month or more.

You can make the case for a handful of Dodgers players, especially if they can get to 110 wins or more. Harper’s teammate, Anthony Rendon, has had a better season according to fWAR. Both Goldschmidt and Arenado are helping their teams overachieve in the stacked NL West. Meanwhile, Joey Votto and Giancarlo Stanton are having absurd seasons at the plate for crappy teams. If Harper only ends up playing 125 games or so, I just can’t see how he’s worthy of winning MVP.

If you’re a Nats fan, are you still worried?

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Mark Gallant

I'm the guy who does his job. You must be the other guy.

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