2016 March Madness: Which Final Four Teams Are Being Underrated by Oddsmakers?

Last week in this space we utilized our bracket simulator predictions to determine which schools were offering value in the futures market. By converting each school’s championship futures into an implied probability, we were able to find four schools with a positive expected value: Villanova (+1250), Virginia (+575), Gonzaga (+2200) and Iowa State (+2800). Although all four…

2016 March Madness: Sweet 16 Line Moves That Matter

Throughout the past NFL season, our weekly Line Moves That Matter articles would highlight the most interesting line moves at the market-setting offshore sportsbooks — typically CRIS and Pinnacle which take the highest limits and therefore attract the sharpest bettors. By contrasting the opening and current lines with the public betting trends from our seven contributing…

2016 Fantasy Baseball: Sleepers and Busts From the Oddsmakers

With the 2016 MLB season fast approaching, many owners will be holding their fantasy draft in the upcoming week. Although football continues to rule the fantasy kingdom, a new wave of advanced statistics and system building has allowed baseball to compete as a close second. Almost everywhere you look there are lists of potential sleepers and…

2016 March Madness: Are Elite Defenses Undervalued by Oddsmakers?

A successful contrarian bettor typically questions conventional wisdom, and challenges widely-held beliefs. Sportsbooks are excellent at predicting where they’re going to get action each week, and they shade their lines accordingly. These shaded lines create additional value for bettors who dare to go against the grain and take an unpopular viewpoint. Squares — or casual…

2016 Cy Young Odds

Last season Houston’s Dallas Kuechel (20-8, 2.48 ERA) and Chicago’s Jake Arrieta (22-6, 1.77 ERA) were the Cy Young winners in the American League and National League, respectively. This was a massive surprise to bettors, as many sportsbooks didn’t offer odds for either player prior to the start of the season. At BetOnline, who offered odds…