2017 College Basketball Futures Offering Value (Part 4)

2017 College Basketball Futures Offering Value (Part 4)

For the past three weeks, I have utilized our bracket simulator predictions to determine which schools were offering value in the futures market. By converting each school’s future price into an implied probability, I have been able to identify several schools with a positive expected value. My initial analysis highlighted Florida (+4000), Louisville (+1700) and Gonzaga (+1000), and those teams continued to offer value last week despite major line movement.

Although the actual tournament bracket won’t be released until Selection Sunday, I’m able to use Joe Lunardi’s weekly Bracketology predictions throughout the regular season and then run 10,000 simulations to determine each team’s probability of winning the national championship. By comparing these probabilities with the implied odds for each team to win the national championship, I’m able to determine which futures are the smartest bets.

The table below compares the implied probabilities at 5Dimes and The Greek with the probabilities from our bracket simulator. Any values of above “1” indicate positive expected returns. This only represents two offshore sportsbooks, and we always encourage bettors to shop for the best line before placing a wager.

TeamProbability5Dimes5Dimes Implied5Dimes ValueGreekGreek ImpliedGreek Value
Wichita State2.2%100000.99%2.222150000.66%3.322
Saint Marys CA1.4%150000.66%2.114125000.79%1.764
Gonzaga22.6%62513.79%1.638580011.11%2.034
Oklahoma State0.8%200000.50%1.608250000.40%2.008
Baylor3.8%40002.44%1.55830003.23%1.178
West Virginia5.3%28003.45%1.53720004.76%1.113
Florida5.1%25003.85%1.32625003.85%1.326
South Carolina0.4%300000.33%1.204200000.50%0.804
Virginia3.5%33002.94%1.1930003.23%1.085
Kentucky8.0%12007.69%1.0480011.11%0.72
Butler1.4%66001.49%0.93850001.96%0.714
Louisville6.0%14006.67%0.912007.69%0.78
Purdue2.5%30003.23%0.77530003.23%0.775
North Carolina10.3%65013.33%0.772580011.11%0.927
Villanova7.0%10009.09%0.7780011.11%0.63
Creighton0.7%100000.99%0.707100000.99%0.707
Cincinnati0.9%75001.32%0.68450001.96%0.459
Florida State2.1%30003.23%0.65130003.23%0.651
SMU1.2%45002.17%0.55285001.16%1.032
Michigan0.2%250000.40%0.502125000.79%0.252
Kansas4.9%90010.00%0.4980011.11%0.441
Iowa State0.5%85001.16%0.43125000.79%0.63
Notre Dame0.5%80001.23%0.40550001.96%0.255
Oregon2.7%12007.69%0.35112007.69%0.351
Miami Florida0.3%100000.99%0.303250000.40%0.753
Dayton0.1%300000.33%0.301200000.50%0.201
Northwestern0.1%250000.40%0.251N/AN/AN/A
Wisconsin0.7%33002.94%0.23830003.23%0.217
Duke2.1%10009.09%0.23180011.11%0.189
Arizona1.1%15006.25%0.17610009.09%0.121
UCLA1.6%65013.33%0.1280011.11%0.144
Minnesota0.1%100000.99%0.101500000.20%0.501
Maryland0.1%50001.96%0.05135002.78%0.036

Based on the latest simulations, there are ten schools offering value at 5Dimes and nine schools offering value at The Greek. The best prices have been identified with asterisks.

5Dimes Values

  • Wichita State (+10,000)
  • Saint Mary’s CA (+15,000)*
  • Gonzaga (+625)
  • Oklahoma State (+20,000)
  • Baylor (+4,000)*
  • West Virginia (+2,800)*
  • Florida (+2,500)
  • South Carolina (+30,000)*
  • Virginia (+3,300)*
  • Kentucky (+1,200)*

Greek Values

  • Wichita State (+15,000)*
  • Gonzaga (+800)*
  • Oklahoma State (+25,000)*
  • Saint Mary’s CA (+12,500)
  • Florida (+2,500)
  • Baylor (+3,000)
  • West Virginia (+2,000)
  • Virginia (+3,000)
  • SMU (+8,500)

It’s interesting to note that South Carolina and Kentucky are both offering value at 5Dimes, but not at The Greek. That’s because South Carolina is listed at +30,000 at 5Dimes and only +20,000 at The Greek. Based on our simulations, they should be priced at 25,000. Conversely, Kentucky is listed at +1200 at 5Dimes and only +800 at The Greek. Based on our simulations, they should be priced at +1150.

Teams like Gonzaga, Baylor, West Virginia, Florida, Virginia, and Wichita State continue to be undervalued according to our simulations, but there are some new teams emerging in our latest simulation. Last week our bracket simulator gave Saint Mary’s (CA) a 0.6% probability of winning the national championship, but that number has climbed to 1.4% following impressive wins over Pepperdine and Santa Clara. At 150/1, the Gaels (26-3 overall, 16-2 in WCC) are an intriguing long-shot candidate.

Another riser has been Oklahoma State, as the Cowboys have seen their probability of winning the national championship improve from 0.3% to 0.8% in the past week. There’s an outside chance that Oklahoma State (20-9, 9-7 in Big 12) doesn’t earn a berth in the tournament, but they’re another potential Cinderella team at 250/1.

Don’t forget to visit our free college basketball odds page for the latest odds, public betting trends, injuries and more. Interested in tracking steam moves, smart money alerts, and our highly profitable Best Bet picks? Sign up for a 4-day trial of Sportsbook Insider Pro.

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David Solar

David was the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He has since moved on to greener pastures.

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