2017 College Basketball Futures Offering Value (Part 4)

For the past three weeks, I have utilized our bracket simulator predictions to determine which schools were offering value in the futures market. By converting each school’s future price into an implied probability, I have been able to identify several schools with a positive expected value. My initial analysis highlighted Florida (+4000), Louisville (+1700) and Gonzaga (+1000), and those teams continued to offer value last week despite major line movement.

Although the actual tournament bracket won’t be released until Selection Sunday, I’m able to use Joe Lunardi’s weekly Bracketology predictions throughout the regular season and then run 10,000 simulations to determine each team’s probability of winning the national championship. By comparing these probabilities with the implied odds for each team to win the national championship, I’m able to determine which futures are the smartest bets.

The table below compares the implied probabilities at 5Dimes and The Greek with the probabilities from our bracket simulator. Any values of above “1” indicate positive expected returns. This only represents two offshore sportsbooks, and we always encourage bettors to shop for the best line before placing a wager.

Team Probability 5Dimes 5Dimes Implied 5Dimes Value Greek Greek Implied Greek Value
Wichita State 2.2% 10000 0.99% 2.222 15000 0.66% 3.322
Saint Marys CA 1.4% 15000 0.66% 2.114 12500 0.79% 1.764
Gonzaga 22.6% 625 13.79% 1.6385 800 11.11% 2.034
Oklahoma State 0.8% 20000 0.50% 1.608 25000 0.40% 2.008
Baylor 3.8% 4000 2.44% 1.558 3000 3.23% 1.178
West Virginia 5.3% 2800 3.45% 1.537 2000 4.76% 1.113
Florida 5.1% 2500 3.85% 1.326 2500 3.85% 1.326
South Carolina 0.4% 30000 0.33% 1.204 20000 0.50% 0.804
Virginia 3.5% 3300 2.94% 1.19 3000 3.23% 1.085
Kentucky 8.0% 1200 7.69% 1.04 800 11.11% 0.72
Butler 1.4% 6600 1.49% 0.938 5000 1.96% 0.714
Louisville 6.0% 1400 6.67% 0.9 1200 7.69% 0.78
Purdue 2.5% 3000 3.23% 0.775 3000 3.23% 0.775
North Carolina 10.3% 650 13.33% 0.7725 800 11.11% 0.927
Villanova 7.0% 1000 9.09% 0.77 800 11.11% 0.63
Creighton 0.7% 10000 0.99% 0.707 10000 0.99% 0.707
Cincinnati 0.9% 7500 1.32% 0.684 5000 1.96% 0.459
Florida State 2.1% 3000 3.23% 0.651 3000 3.23% 0.651
SMU 1.2% 4500 2.17% 0.552 8500 1.16% 1.032
Michigan 0.2% 25000 0.40% 0.502 12500 0.79% 0.252
Kansas 4.9% 900 10.00% 0.49 800 11.11% 0.441
Iowa State 0.5% 8500 1.16% 0.43 12500 0.79% 0.63
Notre Dame 0.5% 8000 1.23% 0.405 5000 1.96% 0.255
Oregon 2.7% 1200 7.69% 0.351 1200 7.69% 0.351
Miami Florida 0.3% 10000 0.99% 0.303 25000 0.40% 0.753
Dayton 0.1% 30000 0.33% 0.301 20000 0.50% 0.201
Northwestern 0.1% 25000 0.40% 0.251 N/A N/A N/A
Wisconsin 0.7% 3300 2.94% 0.238 3000 3.23% 0.217
Duke 2.1% 1000 9.09% 0.231 800 11.11% 0.189
Arizona 1.1% 1500 6.25% 0.176 1000 9.09% 0.121
UCLA 1.6% 650 13.33% 0.12 800 11.11% 0.144
Minnesota 0.1% 10000 0.99% 0.101 50000 0.20% 0.501
Maryland 0.1% 5000 1.96% 0.051 3500 2.78% 0.036

Based on the latest simulations, there are ten schools offering value at 5Dimes and nine schools offering value at The Greek. The best prices have been identified with asterisks.

5Dimes Values

  • Wichita State (+10,000)
  • Saint Mary’s CA (+15,000)*
  • Gonzaga (+625)
  • Oklahoma State (+20,000)
  • Baylor (+4,000)*
  • West Virginia (+2,800)*
  • Florida (+2,500)
  • South Carolina (+30,000)*
  • Virginia (+3,300)*
  • Kentucky (+1,200)*

Greek Values

  • Wichita State (+15,000)*
  • Gonzaga (+800)*
  • Oklahoma State (+25,000)*
  • Saint Mary’s CA (+12,500)
  • Florida (+2,500)
  • Baylor (+3,000)
  • West Virginia (+2,000)
  • Virginia (+3,000)
  • SMU (+8,500)

It’s interesting to note that South Carolina and Kentucky are both offering value at 5Dimes, but not at The Greek. That’s because South Carolina is listed at +30,000 at 5Dimes and only +20,000 at The Greek. Based on our simulations, they should be priced at 25,000. Conversely, Kentucky is listed at +1200 at 5Dimes and only +800 at The Greek. Based on our simulations, they should be priced at +1150.

Teams like Gonzaga, Baylor, West Virginia, Florida, Virginia, and Wichita State continue to be undervalued according to our simulations, but there are some new teams emerging in our latest simulation. Last week our bracket simulator gave Saint Mary’s (CA) a 0.6% probability of winning the national championship, but that number has climbed to 1.4% following impressive wins over Pepperdine and Santa Clara. At 150/1, the Gaels (26-3 overall, 16-2 in WCC) are an intriguing long-shot candidate.

Another riser has been Oklahoma State, as the Cowboys have seen their probability of winning the national championship improve from 0.3% to 0.8% in the past week. There’s an outside chance that Oklahoma State (20-9, 9-7 in Big 12) doesn’t earn a berth in the tournament, but they’re another potential Cinderella team at 250/1.

Don’t forget to visit our free college basketball odds page for the latest odds, public betting trends, injuries and more. Interested in tracking steam moves, smart money alerts, and our highly profitable Best Bet picks? Sign up for a 4-day trial of Sportsbook Insider Pro.

If you have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights, please contact our customer service department at 877-838-2853, email us at help@sportsinsights.com or utilize our live chat to speak directly with a representative.

 

The following two tabs change content below.

David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

Latest posts by David Solar (see all)

No Comments Permalink

Say something

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked with a grey bar.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>