2017 College Basketball Futures Offering Value (Part 3)

For the past two weeks, I have utilized our bracket simulator predictions to determine which schools were offering value in the futures market. By converting each school’s future price into an implied probability, I have been able to identify several schools with a positive expected value. My initial analysis highlighted Florida (+4000), Louisville (+1700) and Gonzaga (+1000), and those teams continued to offer value last week despite major line movement.

Although the actual tournament bracket won’t be released until Selection Sunday, I’m able to use Joe Lunardi’s weekly Bracketology predictions throughout the regular season and then run 10,000 simulations to determine each team’s probability of winning the national championship. By comparing these probabilities with the implied odds for each team to win the national championship, I’m able to determine which futures are the smartest bets.

Last week there were eight schools that were being undervalued by the oddsmakers, all of whom had been highlighted as value plays just one week earlier. Unfortunately, the odds actually got shorter for all but one team (West Virginia moved from 18/1 to 20/1) which means bettors who missed out initial analysis were likely stuck with a worse price on their future. However, it also indicates that our initial valuations were dead-on.

The table below compares the implied probabilities at 5Dimes and The Greek with the probabilities from our bracket simulator. Any values of above “1” indicate positive expected returns. This only represents two offshore sportsbooks, and we always encourage bettors to shop for the best line before placing a wager.

Team Probability 5Dimes 5Dimes Implied 5Dimes Value Greek Greek Implied Greek Value
Wichita State 1.9% 10000 0.99% 1.919 15000 0.66% 2.869
West Virginia 6.3% 2800 3.45% 1.827 2000 4.76% 1.323
Oklahoma State 0.5% 30000 0.33% 1.505 25000 0.40% 1.255
Gonzaga 21.3% 575 14.81% 1.43775 800 11.11% 1.917
Florida 6.5% 2000 4.76% 1.365 2500 3.85% 1.69
Virginia 5.2% 2500 3.85% 1.352 3000 3.23% 1.612
Baylor 4.2% 2500 3.85% 1.092 3000 3.23% 1.302
SMU 1.3% 8000 1.23% 1.053 8500 1.16% 1.118
Louisville 6.0% 1450 6.45% 0.93 1200 7.69% 0.78
Villanova 8.2% 985 9.22% 0.8897 800 11.11% 0.738
North Carolina 7.9% 975 9.30% 0.84925 800 11.11% 0.711
South Carolina 0.4% 20000 0.50% 0.804 20000 0.50% 0.804
Kentucky 5.7% 1200 7.69% 0.741 800 11.11% 0.513
Saint Marys CA 0.9% 8000 1.23% 0.729 12500 0.79% 1.134
Purdue 2.9% 2350 4.08% 0.7105 3000 3.23% 0.899
Iowa State 0.4% 15000 0.66% 0.604 12500 0.79% 0.504
Butler 0.6% 8000 1.23% 0.486 8000 1.23% 0.486
Creighton 0.6% 8000 1.23% 0.486 10000 0.99% 0.606
Duke 4.3% 1000 9.09% 0.473 650 13.33% 0.3225
Kansas 4.6% 900 10.00% 0.46 800 11.11% 0.414
Cincinnati 0.8% 5000 1.96% 0.408 5000 1.96% 0.408
Oregon 2.9% 1300 7.14% 0.406 1200 7.69% 0.377
Wisconsin 1.3% 2500 3.85% 0.338 3000 3.23% 0.403
Notre Dame 0.4% 8000 1.23% 0.324 5000 1.96% 0.204
California 0.1% 30000 0.33% 0.301 50000 0.20% 0.501
Dayton 0.1% 30000 0.33% 0.301 20000 0.50% 0.201
Kansas State 0.1% 30000 0.33% 0.301 25000 0.40% 0.251
Miami Florida 0.1% 30000 0.33% 0.301 25000 0.40% 0.251
Northwestern 0.1% 30000 0.33% 0.301 N/A N/A N/A
Florida State 1.5% 1800 5.26% 0.285 3000 3.23% 0.465
Michigan 0.1% 20000 0.50% 0.201 12500 0.79% 0.126
Arizona 1.2% 1300 7.14% 0.168 1000 9.09% 0.132
UCLA 1.3% 1000 9.09% 0.143 800 11.11% 0.117
Xavier 0.1% 10000 0.99% 0.101 15000 0.66% 0.151
Maryland 0.1% 3750 2.60% 0.0385 3500 2.78% 0.036
VCU 0.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Based on the latest simulations, there are eight schools offering value at 5Dimes and nine schools offering value at The Greek.

5Dimes Values

  • Wichita State (+10,000)
  • West Virginia (+2,800)*
  • Oklahoma State (+30,000)*
  • Gonzaga (+575)
  • Florida (+2,000)
  • Virginia (+2,500)
  • Baylor (+2,500)
  • SMU (+8,000)

Greek Values

  • Wichita State (+15,000)*
  • Gonzaga (+800)*
  • Florida (+2,500)*
  • Virginia (+3,000)*
  • West Virginia (+2,000)
  • Baylor (+3,000)*
  • Oklahoma State (+25,000)
  • Saint Mary’s (+12,500)
  • SMU (+8,500)*

All eight teams offering value at 5Dimes are also offering value at The Greek, however, there’s one team that’s only offering value at The Greek. Our bracket simulator gives Saint Mary’s a 0.9% probability to win the national championship, which translates to implied odds of roughly +11,000. The Gaels are +12,500 at The Greek but only +8,000 at 5Dimes. That’s why they only appear as a value play at one sportsbook.

It’s also interesting to note that Gonzaga’s odds of winning the national championship continue to improve. The Bulldogs were +900 two weeks ago, +650 last week, and +575 this week at 5Dimes. According to our bracket simulator, their probability of winning the national championship actually dropped from 22.9% to 21.3% since last week, which means they’re offering way less value at the new price. This is a solid value bet, but you’ll likely find a better price by waiting several weeks.

One potential sleeper could be the 25th-ranked Wichita State Shockers, who have seen their probability of winning the national championship improve from 0.9% to 1.9% following decisive wins over Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa. This team is deep, experienced, and well-coached. Although they don’t have the name recognition of other schools, they have reached the NCAA tournament in five consecutive seasons. They may have lost their two best players last season (Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet), but Wichita State is a great long shot bet at 150/1. In fact, our bracket simulator believes they’re a better team than the (vastly overrated) fifth-ranked UCLA Bruins.

Don’t forget to visit our free college basketball odds page for the latest odds, public betting trends, injuries and more. Interested in tracking steam moves, smart money alerts, and our highly profitable Best Bet picks? Sign up for a 4-day trial of Sportsbook Insider Pro.

If you have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights, please contact our customer service department at 877-838-2853, email us at help@sportsinsights.com or utilize our live chat to speak directly with a representative.

The following two tabs change content below.

David Solar

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He specializes in sports betting analytics and creating data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

Latest posts by David Solar (see all)

No Comments Permalink

Say something

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked with a grey bar.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>