2017-18 Premier League Week 9 Betting Preview
Last week didn’t go according to plan for value plays as Liverpool weren’t able to grab a winner against Man Utd, and Swansea avoided a draw against Huddersfield. In other action, Crystal Palace not only scored their first goal of the EPL season, they upset Chelsea 2-1 at +695 underdogs. There was considerable line movement on Crystal Palace as well, so some bettors lucked out pretty good. Watford also came back to beat Arsenal 2-1, scoring twice in the final 20 minutes. There was not one road team to win in Week 8, while draws continued their profitable trend on the season.
Week 8 Results:
Home 5 of 10 (+7.37 units)
Away 0 of 10 (-10.00 units)
Draw 5 of 10 (+6.82 units)
Home 34 of 80 (-13.15 units)
Away 24 of 80 (-6.30 units)
Draw 22 of 80 (+12.43 units)
Season Biggest Payouts:
Burnley (+1125) at Chelsea in Week 1
Crystal Palace (+695) vs. Chelsea in Week 8
Tottenham/Swansea Draw (+695) in Week 5
Tottenham/Burnley Draw (+625) in Week 3
Man City -250
Man Utd +400
Despite losing a few value plays in a row, still up +4.72 units after just 15 picks so nothing to worry about. Whether you go through a long winning streak or long losing streak, it’s always good to stay disciplined and not over-bet. There will always be plenty of games to bet on in the future.
Now looking ahead to Week 9, the early matchup Saturday between Watford and Chelsea will be one to watch. Watford have started the season very nicely and are 2 points ahead of defending champion Chelsea. The final match of the week on Sunday afternoon will feature Tottenham vs. Liverpool, another match you won’t want to miss. In that game, we’ve seen some movement on Liverpool and the draw. Spurs haven’t been that great at “home” this season since they’re playing at Wembley Stadium until their new stadium is completed. Betting tickets have been fairly even on the 3-way moneyline so it could be some sharper bets taking Liverpool and/or Draw.
As for value plays, I’m going to start with a home side whose line has been dwindling since opening: Southampton -111. They’re getting just 31% of tickets to win at home while there’s tons of public support on big road underdogs West Brom (+400 odds). This is a classic matchup where the public loves the trendy underdog and moves the line more than it should, but I’m going contrarian. Seems like many fans and bettors have been down on Southampton this season but I’m just not one of them. Thees two teams have combined to draw 7 of their 16 contests this year but bet on Southampton -111 to win at home.
The other value play is on small road favorites Leicester City at +175 odds. They’re playing at Swansea this weekend, who I’ve been low on since the beginning of last season. This is a bit risky since Leicester City just sacked manager Craig Shakespeare, so I’m not entirely sure how they’ll react. Public bettors have been scared off to bet on them, and they’re getting just 22% of tickets around the market. Another great spot to go contrarian and take the better team to win straight up at +170 odds.
Most Lopsided: 63% on Arsenal +102, 57% on Stoke +119
Biggest Line Moves: Watford (+1167 to +836) at Chelsea, Bournemouth (+326 to +265) at Stoke City
Value Plays (7-8 season record, +4.72 units): Southampton -111, Leicester City +170
If you’re a new reader and unsure about taking these plays, they did earn +15.28 units last season with a 19% ROI following the same strategies.
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