2017-18 Premier League Week 7 Betting Preview
Week 6 was all about the favorites as they won 7 of the 10 matches. There was only 1 draw but we were fortunate to pick it out as a value play (Burnley/Huddersfield +225). Value plays are now +7.72 units on the season after just 12 picks, good for a 64% ROI.
Crystal Palace continues their dreadful season, now with 0 wins and 0 goals in their first six matches. It won’t get any easier for them this weekend as they travel to Manchester United and then play Chelsea at home.
Man City are now -115 favorites to win the Premier League. All updated odds here.
Week 6 Results:
Home 4 of 10 (-2.90 units)
Away 5 of 10 (+0.14 units)
Draw 1 of 10 (-6.86 units)
Season Results:
Home 25 of 60 (-10.41 units)
Away 21 of 60 (+4.79 units)
Draw 14 of 60 (+4.64 units)
Season Biggest Payouts:
Burnley (+1125) at Chelsea in Week 1
Tottenham/Swansea Draw (+695) in Week 5
Tottenham/Burnley Draw (+625) in Week 3
There are a few big favorites this weekend (Tottenham, Man United, Arsenal) so I’ll be avoiding those matches.
The biggest matchup of the week is Chelsea hosting Manchester City on Saturday afternoon, and so far we’ve seen line movement on Chelsea. However, a big part of that line movement occurred once news of Sergio Aguero’s injury came out. He’ll be out for the clash this weekend but luckily Man City have other options at forward to fill in. Still a big miss though, especially while Chelsea are riding a high from their 2-1 Champions League win over Atletico Madrid. Nearly 60% of bets are on Chelsea so I’m avoiding this game as well.
The only value play I do like is on West Brom +132 vs. Watford, which may surprise some people. Watford are a perfect 3-0 on the road this season while allowing just 1 goal, and that has caught bettors’ attention. Watford are currently getting 55% of moneyline tickets but they’ve moved from +264 to +276 since opening. West Brom has been solid at home, especially against Watford in recent years, and they deserved a better result at Arsenal last Monday. I’m fading the trendy road underdog here and siding with the sharper money by taking West Brom to win at +132 odds.
Most Lopsided: 87% on Liverpool (-138), 84% on Tottenham (-240)
Biggest Line Moves: West Ham (-104 to -110) at Swansea, Chelsea (+175 to +157) at Man City
Value Plays (7-5 record, +7.72 units): West Brom +132 vs. Watford
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