2017-18 Premier League Week 6 Betting Preview
Before we get to Week 6, let’s get a quick recap of Week 5: Value plays went 1-1 for +1.25 units as the West Ham/West Brom Draw hit at +225, but the Newcastle/Stoke Draw +227 did not. Bournemouth came back to beat Brighton 2-1 for their first points of the season while Man City, Man Utd and Southampton also earned victories. Liverpool and Tottenham both slipped up at home and drew against inferior teams, cashing big lines for draw bettors. Arsenal/Chelsea also ended in a draw, which would end up being the theme of the week.
And finally, Crystal Palace made history, but not in a good way:
History made in the EPL: Crystal Palace become the first top-division team in England to open the season with 5 straight shutout losses.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) September 16, 2017
Week 5 Results:
Home 3 of 10 (-4.30 units)
Away 2 of 10 (-5.94 units)
Draw 5 of 10 (+15.21 units)
Week 5 Biggest Payouts:
Liverpool/Burnley Draw +561
Home 21 of 50 (-7.51 units)
Away 16 of 50 (+4.65 units)
Draw 13 of 50 (+11.50 units)
Season Biggest Payouts:
Burnley (+1125) at Chelsea in Week 1
Tottenham/Swansea Draw (+695) in Week 5
Tottenham/Burnley Draw (+625) in Week 3
This weekend there are a number of considerable favorites including Man City, Man Utd, Tottenham, Chelsea, Everton and Arsenal. I won’t be touching any of those games, but the way the EPL shakes out, we’re likely to see an upset along the way– I just don’t know who it will be.
As usual, I’m going back to the well and taking a couple draws for this weekend’s matchups. If you’ve looked at the board, you probably have an inkling who they are. The first will be on the Draw +215 between Newcastle and Brighton. Bettors have hopped on the Newcastle bandwagon and they’re getting more than 75% of bets on the road, looking for their 4th consecutive win. The total is just 2 goals, a great sign for a low-scoring and tight affair. Historically, draws have performed very well in the +200 to +225 range with low totals, so this is another great match.
The other value play will be on the Draw +225 between Burnley and Huddersfield. Both teams are surprisingly tied for 5th place in the EPL with 8 points each, so both have been overperforming thus far. Again we have a very low total of just 2 goals and a moneyline in the sweet spot historically. These teams were expected to be relegated this season so it’s nice to see them jump out to good starts. I see them sharing the points this weekend, so value is on the Draw +225.
Most Lopsided: 93% on Man Utd (-135), 91% on Chelsea (-162)
Biggest Line Moves: Chelsea (-144 to -162) at Stoke, Bournemouth (+508 to +460) at Everton
Value Plays (6-4 record, +6.47 units): Newcastle/Brighton Draw +215, Burnley/Huddersfield Draw +225
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