2017-18 Premier League Week 1 Betting Preview
Welcome back to another season of Premier League betting! Last year was the first entire season of picking out value plays and we were successful, earning over +15 units for the year and a 19% ROI. All value plays risk 1 unit and there are generally one to three plays each week. This season I’ll be analyzing the market again to pick out the best value plays on a weekly basis. Before we get to 2017-18, here’s a quick look at the betting results from 2016-17:
2016-17 Season Trends:
Home teams: 186 wins of 380 (+28.32 units)
Away teams: 109 wins of 380 (-77.50 units)
Draws: 85 wins of 380 (-35.45 units)
2016-17 Biggest Upset Wins/Payouts:
Swansea +1200 at Liverpool (Week 23)
Crystal Palace +980 at Chelsea (Week 32)
West Ham +740 vs. Tottenham (Week 37)
Home teams were solid throughout the year but that could easily change this season. Now, what should bettors know for Week 1 of the 2017-18 season? First off, fans get a rare Friday afternoon match to kick off the season, with Leicester City going to London to face Arsenal. The line opened Arsenal -263 back in early July but injuries (surprising for Arsenal, huh?) dropped the line to Arsenal -175 this week. We’ve seen the majority of bets on Arsenal but a healthy showing of support for the Leicester City moneyline as well:
For the weekend games, the public is heaviest on Everton (91%) and Crystal Palace (88%). Both are small home favorites against weaker opponents, but I actually see some value on the Everton/Stoke Draw +285. We’ve tracked <5% of tickets on the draw, but the line has moved from +292 to +285 since opening at Pinnacle. It’s a small line move, but significant in the fact that the betting public is all over Everton. Clearly there’s a little bit of sharp money (reverse-line movement in this case) around the market to go against that public action on Everton.
I’m also a little intrigued by the Newcastle/Tottenham Over 2.5. The public is on the Under but the juice has moved toward the Over. I’m not a big totals bettor so I’ll pass this early in the season, but it’s always nice to go contrarian on an Over.
Most Lopsided Moneylines: Everton (91%), Crystal Palace (88%)
Biggest Moneyline Moves Since Open: Leicester City (+793 to +607) at Arsenal, Tottenham (-121 to -140) at Newcastle
Value Plays (0-0 season record): Everton/Stoke Draw +285
Premium and Pro members can track all the latest odds, betting percentages, line moves and more.
You can also check out our 2017-18 Premier League Season Preview.