2016 NFL Week 3 Opening Line Report

Week 2 of the NFL season is in the books; however, it ended with several key players suffering significant injuries. Jimmy Garoppolo (shoulder), Adrian Peterson (knee), and Jay Cutler (hand) all left their games with injuries that will likely sideline them for Week 3.

Peterson’s injury is likely the most devastating of the three, especially if he is out long-term. Minnesota’s franchise running back tore his right meniscus and is out indefinitely. As we mentioned earlier in the offseason, oddsmakers believe that Peterson is one of the few non-quarterbacks who can affect the spread.

Below are the opening and current lines for Week 3 from Bookmaker compared to the look ahead lines that CG Technology posted back in April. Every week we will examine the largest moves and analyze how oddsmakers’ expectations have shifted since the offseason.

Matchup Current Line (9/20) Opening Line (9/20) Look Ahead (4/21)
HOU at NE HOU -1 HOU -1.5* NE -8
DEN at CIN OFF BOARD OFF BOARD CIN -3
OAK at TEN TEN -1.5 PK OAK -2.5
ARI at BUF ARI -4.5 ARI -5 ARI -2.5
BAL at JAX BAL -1 PK PK
CLE at MIA MIA -10 MIA -7.5* MIA -7
WAS at NYG NYG -4.5 NYG -4 NYG -3
DET at GB GB -7 GB -8.5* GB -8.5
MIN at CAR CAR -7 CAR -7.5* CAR -5.5
SF at SEA SEA -9 SEA -10 SEA -14
LA at TB TB -5.5 TB -3.5 TB -1
PIT at PHI PIT -3.5 PIT -3.5* PIT -3
NYJ at KC KC -3 KC -3.5 KC -3.5
SD at IND IND -3 IND -3 IND -5.5
CHI at DAL DAL -7.5 DAL -7.5* DAL -6
ATL at NO NO -3 NO -3 NO -1.5

*- Game was originally off the board

Overall, the biggest changes are due to injuries at the quarterback position. The New England Patriots and Cleveland Browns will enter Week 3 with rookies under center. Although things could change before kick-off, it appears that Jacoby Brissett of NC State will start for the Patriots (+1) on Thursday and Cody Kessler of USC will start for the Browns (+10) on Sunday. Unlike Brissett, who filled in when Garoppolo left the game, Kessler has yet to throw a regular-season pass. The Pats are rarely underdogs, but it is profitable to back Bill Belichick’s squad when they are getting points (23-9 ATS, +13.45 units per BetLabsSports.com).

Another huge discrepancy is in the San Francisco-Seattle game. The Seahawks were -14 back in April, but have since dropped to -9 at the time of publication. While the defense has been one of the league’s best, Seattle’s offense has been shaky, putting up 15 points in Weeks 1 and 2 combined. Despite their struggles on offense, oddsmakers still believe in the Seahawks and expect that the 49ers will suffer another lopsided defeat.

These numbers are subject to change before kickoff, so bettors should be sure to visit our free NFL odds page for the latest lines, injuries, public betting trends and more.

We would also suggest that customers sign up for a 4-day trial of Sportsbook Insider Pro for real-time odds, public betting trends, Best Bet picks, contrarian plays, steam moves, reverse line movement alerts and much more. Schedule a one-on-one demo with our customer service and we add four days onto your subscription for free!

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Andrew Fine

Andrew is a Sports Betting Specialist for Sports Insights. He can be reached at andrew@sportsinsights.com.

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