2016 NFL MVP Odds

2016 NFL MVP Odds

Back in late-April, Sportsbook.com became the first major oddsmaker to release their odds for the 2016 NFL MVP Award. In past seasons, sportsbooks have typically waited until mid-July to start posting this prop bet which made this a fairly interesting development.

Since the award was first handed out in 1957, more quarterbacks have won this award (39) than all other positions combined (21). Included in those other winners are 18 running backs, one defensive tackle (Alan Page in 1971), one place kicker (Mark Moseley in 1982) and one linebacker (Lawrence Taylor in 1986).

The big takeaway is that 95% of past winners have been either running backs or quarterbacks, so bettors should avoid being tempted by trendy sleepers like J.J. Watt or Rob Gronkowski.

The table below displays the past MVP winners along with their preseason odds.

Prior to the start of the season, reigning MVP Cam Newton (+300) was listed as the favorite to repeat and 2014 MVP Aaron Rodgers (+400) was listed with the second-shortest odds. Despite his four-game suspension, Tom Brady (+1500) was also considered a serious threat to win his third career MVP award. That said, it’s important to realize that Sportsbook.com is not very reputable and they take low limits on these type of prop bets.

Although Newton and the Panthers have been one of the league’s biggest disappointments, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have been methodically dissecting opposing defenses. Despite missing four games to start the season, Brady threw for 3,554 yards with 28 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions — that’s the best touchdown-to-interception ratio in a single season. Brady (+900) is listed with the third-best odds of winning the NFL MVP Award.

Aaron Rodgers, who was listed as with 100/1 odds at 5Dimes just over one month ago, has been arguably the league’s hottest player. After starting the season with a 4-6 record, it seems like the Packers playoff prospects were grim. However, Rodgers guided Green Bay to six consecutive wins en route to the NFC North title and a home playoff game. During the regular season, Rodgers threw for 4,428 yards with 44 total touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He’s listed with the second-best odds (+500) to win the MVP Award.

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan, who led the league with an 83.4 total QBR, has emerged as the odds-on favorite (-900) to be named the league’s most valuable player. This season Ryan has thrown for 4,944 yards with 38 touchdowns and 7 interceptions while leading his team to an NFC South crown and a first-round bye. Before the season, Ryan was available at 135/1 to win the MVP Award.

It’s also fascinating to observe the rapid rise of Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott. The rookie opened the season as a 135/1 long shot at 5Dimes, but he’s currently listed with the fourth-best odds (+1800) at BetOnline. Elliott was listed as the favorite just three weeks ago, but his odds took a substantial tumble when he was benched in Week 17. For what it’s worth, Elliott would be the first rookie to win the MVP Award since Jim Brown in 1957.

The table below compares the latest NFL MVP odds at 5Dimes, BetOnline, Bovada, Bookmaker, Paddy Power and Sportsbook.com.

The section below was originally published on April 27th:

Although these odds will likely change dramatically by the time the regular season rolls around, there are several players that appear to be offering value. One of my personal favorites is Russell Wilson, who’s currently available at 16/1.

The fifth-year veteran has improved steadily every year and posted an incredible stat line last season with over 4,000 passing yards and a 34:8 touchdown to interception ratio. Wilson also had the league’s third-highest completion percentage (68.1%) and the third most rushing yards (553) among quarterbacks.

Only twice in the history of the league has the MVP been awarded to a player whose team did not make the playoffs — the 1967 Baltimore Colts (Johnny Unitas) and the 1973 Buffalo Bills (OJ Simpson). The Seahawks (+435) are the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, which makes Wilson a safe bet to at least be in the conversation.

Some long shots offering potential values include: David Johnson (150/1), Tony Romo (75/1), Derek Carr (75/1) and Adrian Peterson (60/1).

Which players do you think are offering value? Do you think that Cam Newton will be able repeat? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

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