2016 MLB Playoff Odds

We’ve highlighted numerous futures and props throughout the MLB offseason and 5Dimes has recently released odds for each team to make the playoffs. Below shows which teams are expected to make it and which are considered longshots, along with their accompanying win totals and divisional odds:

Team Odds to Make Playoffs Odds to Miss Playoffs Season Win Total Odds to Win Division
Cubs -610 +425 93.5 -185
Mets -295 +235 89.5 -125
Nationals -245 +185 88.5 +125
Dodgers -240 +180 89.5 +115
Giants -205 +165 88.5 +130
Royals -150 +120 84.5 +170
Astros -135 +105 88.5 +135
Red Sox -135 +105 86.5 +170
Blue Jays -120 -110 86.5 +220
Indians -115 -115 85.5 +185
Cardinals +100 -130 87.5 +335
Pirates +140 -170 86.5 +435
Rangers +140 -170 83.5 +290
Mariners +160 -195 82.5 +335
Yankees +165 -205 85.5 +335
Diamondbacks +190 -250 81.5 +430
Angels +210 -270 80.5 +550
Tigers +235 -295 81.5 +425
White Sox +290 -380 80.5 +575
Rays +400 -550 82.5 +740
Marlins +450 -675 78.5 +10000
Orioles +550 -925 79.5 +775
Twins +735 -1350 79.5 +950
Athletics +900 -1610 75.5 +1300
Padres +1400 -3050 73.5 +2800
Brewers +5500 -17500 70.5 +8000
Reds +5500 -17500 70.5 +8000
Rockies +6000 -20000 71.5 +9000
Braves +6500 -21500 65.5 +10000
Phillies +11500 -36500 64.5 +15000

No surprise that the World Series frontrunning Cubs are favorites to make the playoffs, but -610 seems a bit steep, especially in a division with both the Pirates and Cardinals. While it’s true that the bulk of the poor MLB teams are in the National League this year, they have two tough division opponents as well as teams like the Nats, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, and DBacks all vying for playoff spots.

The value picks may reside in the American League as the parity is tremendous heading into the season. One noteworthy team is the Indians, who aren’t a trendy pick and are essentially a toss-up to make the playoffs. They’re coming off a disappointing season but certainly have the pitching staff to either win the AL Central or a Wild Card slot.

It’s also interesting to look at the differences between divisional odds and odds to make the playoffs. For some, it makes a lot more sense to bet a team to make the playoffs rather than winning the division outright. For example, the Rays are listed at +740 to win the AL East and the Orioles are listed at +775 to win the AL East. However, the Rays’ odds to make the playoffs are just +400 while the Orioles are at +550, so if you’re high on Baltimore this year then the +550 option is likely smarter.

Are the Cubs overvalued at -610, or are they essentially a “lock” to make the playoffs?

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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