2016 March Madness: Round of 64 Betting Recap

Day 1 of the 2016 NCAA Tournament was stellar, but Day 2 may have been even better. We saw 2 buzzer-beaters in Friday night’s action as well as a slew of moneyline upsets.

– On Thursday morning it was announced that Cal point guard Tyrone Wallace broke his hand in practice Wednesday. Following the announcement Cal dropped from -6.5 to -4.5 against Hawaii for Friday’s Round of 64 game and they ended up losing 77-66.

– The two highest bet games on Thursday netted great results for sportsbooks (Yale over Baylor and Little Rock over Purdue), but the highest bet games on Friday were both wins for the public (Notre Dame over Michigan and Northern Iowa over Texas).

– Overs went 20-12 in the opening round.

– Favorites went 17-15 in the opening round.

– The Atlantic-10 and MVC have already gone over the conference win totals for the tournament.

– Moneyline underdogs went just 2-14 straight up on Thursday but went 6-10 straight up on Friday.

– The biggest upsets of the tournament so far:
1. Middle Tennessee State (+1529) over Michigan State
2. Little Rock (+348) over Purdue
3. Stephen Austin (+266) over West Virginia
4. Hawaii (+222) over California
5. Yale (+213) over Baylor

– Middle Tennessee State’s upset shattered nearly 1/4 of brackets who picked Sparty to reach the title game and it was the second largest tourney upset in our database behind only Norfolk State over Missouri:

– Via David Purdum, more money was bet on Michigan State to win the title than any other team at LV Superbook. This was another great early win for sportsbooks, who did very well on Thursday too. According to Purdum, Caesars sportsbooks won $1 million company-wide just on Thursday’s games alone.

– Here’s a breakdown of how each seed fared ATS in the opening round:
seeds ats

– Via ESPN Stats and Info, this was the first NCAA Tournament ever where a 13, 14, and 15 seed won on the same day:

– This tourney has also set a record for most teams seeded 11 or higher to advance from the Round of 64:

– 9-seeded favorites over the 8-seed had historically been poor, going just 5-12 ATS since 2005. However, this year they “improved” to 2-2: Butler (-4) over Texas Tech 71-61 and UConn (-3) over Colorado 74-67 were the 9-seeds to cover, but St. Joe’s beat Cincinnati on Friday night, and 8-seed USC got this close cover against Providence Thursday:

– In Thursday’s best game, #12-seed Little Rock pulled off a massive comeback to stun Purdue in double overtime 85-83. Little Rock reached +1410 on the live moneyline ($100 to make $1,400) while Purdue was as high as -3500 ($3,500 to make $100):

– On Friday night we saw this incredible buzzer-beater by Northern Iowa over Texas:

– Prior to Friday’s games we highlighted the importance of betting against the public in the tournament due to so many casual and square bettors:

– With MTSU and Bakersfield both covering, that record improved to 11-1 ATS:

Be sure to keep up with all the latest line moves, betting trends, breaking injuries and more at our Free Live Odds page.

Check out our Bracket Simulator to find out the probabilities for each team to advance in each round.

Reminder that we offer an introductory trial for our Pro membership, which includes all picks, bet signals, betting trends, and more. Our NCAAB Best Bets are up over +23 units on the season and we have more plays for this weekend’s games.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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