2016 Kentucky Derby Odds

2016 Kentucky Derby Odds

The 2016 Kentucky Derby is less than a week away and the folks over at William Hill have been reporting the most popular bets so far for this prestigious race on May 7th in Louisville, Kentucky. Below we’ve shown the opening and current odds at William Hill and BetOnline (BOL), as well as the 10 most popular bets in terms of dollars wagered at William Hill.

HorseMay 6
May 2
Apr 21
Mar 3
Jan 22
Jan 22
(Will Hill)
Oct 20
(Will Hill)
Gun Runner+1000+1200+1100+2000+3500+6000+10000
Brody's Cause+1200+1000+1000+1600+1800+1600+7500
Mor Spirit+1200+900+850+900+1800+1400+7500
Danzing Candy+1500+3000+4000+3500N/A+10000+12500
My Man Sam+2000+1300+1200N/AN/AN/AN/A
Mo Tom+2000+2800+3000+2200+2500+6000+17500
Tom's Ready+3000+6000+5000+6500N/AN/AN/A
Trojan Nation+5000+5000+4500N/AN/AN/AN/A
Oscar Nominated+5000+6500+6000N/AN/AN/AN/A
Dazzling GemN/A+9500+4000N/AN/AN/AN/A
Gift BoxN/AN/AN/A+4500+3500+6000+12500
Awesome BannerN/AN/AN/A+10000N/A+10000+13000
Conquest Big EN/AN/AN/A+4500+4500+5000+10000
Awesome SpeedN/AN/AN/A+4500+2500+10000+15000
Sunny RidgeN/AN/AN/A+3500+7500+15000+15000
Smokey ImageN/AN/AN/A+1500N/A+6500+17500
Cherry WineN/AN/AN/A+3500N/A+7500+10000
Charmed VictoryN/AN/AN/A+5000+4500+10000+10000
American DubaiN/AN/AN/A+3500N/A+15000+12500
Annual ReportN/AN/AN/A+6000+6000+5000+15000
Matt King CoalN/AN/AN/A+6500+7500+7500+10000
Sail AhoyN/AN/AN/A+6500+6500+7500+6000
Cocked and LoadedN/AN/AN/A+6500+6000+7500+5000
Toews on IceN/AN/AN/A+7500+7500+7500+15000
Get JetsN/AN/AN/A+7500N/A+10000+15000
Unbridled OutlawN/AN/AN/A+10000+10000+6000+8000

As you can see, there have been a number of big odds changes but this is very common with the Kentucky Derby since odds are opened more than 6 months in advance.

The most notable and significant changes were for Mohaymen. The horse got an easy victory at the Fountain of Youth Stakes, which propelled the horse to be the clear +225 favorite and +400 at William Hill. Mohaymen then lost at the Florida Derby to Nyquist, which dropped Mohaymen to +1100 at BetOnline. Nyquist is now the clear +300 favorite at both BetOnline and William Hill.

Below shows just how much money is being wagered on Mohaymen at William Hill, which provides some reasoning behind the movement. Over the last few months, Mohaymen has been getting a considerable number of wagers and now totals nearly half of all dollars to win the Derby:

William Hill odds and %’s on May 2, 2016:

derby will hill monday

William Hill odds and %’s on April 19, 2016:

kentucky derby april

William Hill odds and %’s on January 22, 2016:

will hill kentucky derby

It’s clear that bettors are much higher on Mohaymen at William Hill than they are at BetOnline. We always preach getting the best line possible, and the difference of +400 (William Hill) to +1100 (BetOnline) is extremely significant.

Over at CRIS sportsbook, Nyquist is receiving the highest percentage of bet tickets (18.3%). The next closest is Exaggerator at 10.5% of tickets, followed by Mohaymen at 7.6%.

Here are some prominent prop bets featured for this year’s Kentucky Derby:

  • What will be the length of victory? (via William Hill)

KY Derby 2016

  • Will Secretariat’s record time of 1:59.40 be broken? (via Bovada)
    ‘Yes’ +1000, ‘No’ -4000
  • Will there be an inquiry? (via Bovada)
    ‘Yes’ +450, ‘No’ -850
  • Will the crowd attendance exceed the 170,513 in 2015? (via Bovada)
    ‘Yes’ +110, ‘No’ -150
  • What will the winning horse’s saddlecloth number be? (via Bovada)
    ‘Odd’ -270, ‘Even’ +180

Bettors also have the chance to wager on whether there will be another Triple Crown winner this year. Back on January 22, the odds of any horse winning the Triple Crown was +900 (shown below from William Hill):

will hill triple crown bets

Since that time, 5Dimes now lists any horse to win the Triple Crown at just +500 (with the ‘No’ available at -700). That has actually created an arbitrage or hedge opportunity where bettors can ensure a profit at +900 on Yes, and -700 on No.

Is there a horse that can actually win the Triple Crown this year? Nyquist has by far the best chance to do so at +1350 odds (6.9% probability). The next closest is Moyhaymen at +4250 odds (2.3% probability).

Do you have any early picks for the Kentucky Derby? Will there be another horse like American Pharoah this year? Feel free to leave your thoughts and comments below.

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

1 Comment
  • Finn
    05/05/2016 at 11:33 am

    I really think there is some value in Tom’s Ready at +6000, everyone from New England knows that whenever there is any kind of challenge or opportunity to step up people/horses named Tom are always ready. The name of this horse really gives me confidence it can pull the miracle win.

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