The 2016 Kentucky Derby is less than a week away and the folks over at William Hill have been reporting the most popular bets so far for this prestigious race on May 7th in Louisville, Kentucky. Below we’ve shown the opening and current odds at William Hill and BetOnline (BOL), as well as the 10 most popular bets in terms of dollars wagered at William Hill.
|My Man Sam||+2000||+1300||+1200||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|Conquest Big E||N/A||N/A||N/A||+4500||+4500||+5000||+10000|
|Matt King Coal||N/A||N/A||N/A||+6500||+7500||+7500||+10000|
|Cocked and Loaded||N/A||N/A||N/A||+6500||+6000||+7500||+5000|
|Toews on Ice||N/A||N/A||N/A||+7500||+7500||+7500||+15000|
As you can see, there have been a number of big odds changes but this is very common with the Kentucky Derby since odds are opened more than 6 months in advance.
The most notable and significant changes were for Mohaymen. The horse got an easy victory at the Fountain of Youth Stakes, which propelled the horse to be the clear +225 favorite and +400 at William Hill. Mohaymen then lost at the Florida Derby to Nyquist, which dropped Mohaymen to +1100 at BetOnline. Nyquist is now the clear +300 favorite at both BetOnline and William Hill.
Below shows just how much money is being wagered on Mohaymen at William Hill, which provides some reasoning behind the movement. Over the last few months, Mohaymen has been getting a considerable number of wagers and now totals nearly half of all dollars to win the Derby:
William Hill odds and %’s on May 2, 2016:
William Hill odds and %’s on April 19, 2016:
William Hill odds and %’s on January 22, 2016:
It’s clear that bettors are much higher on Mohaymen at William Hill than they are at BetOnline. We always preach getting the best line possible, and the difference of +400 (William Hill) to +1100 (BetOnline) is extremely significant.
Over at CRIS sportsbook, Nyquist is receiving the highest percentage of bet tickets (18.3%). The next closest is Exaggerator at 10.5% of tickets, followed by Mohaymen at 7.6%.
Here are some prominent prop bets featured for this year’s Kentucky Derby:
- What will be the length of victory? (via William Hill)
- Will Secretariat’s record time of 1:59.40 be broken? (via Bovada)
‘Yes’ +1000, ‘No’ -4000
- Will there be an inquiry? (via Bovada)
‘Yes’ +450, ‘No’ -850
- Will the crowd attendance exceed the 170,513 in 2015? (via Bovada)
‘Yes’ +110, ‘No’ -150
- What will the winning horse’s saddlecloth number be? (via Bovada)
‘Odd’ -270, ‘Even’ +180
Bettors also have the chance to wager on whether there will be another Triple Crown winner this year. Back on January 22, the odds of any horse winning the Triple Crown was +900 (shown below from William Hill):
Since that time, 5Dimes now lists any horse to win the Triple Crown at just +500 (with the ‘No’ available at -700). That has actually created an arbitrage or hedge opportunity where bettors can ensure a profit at +900 on Yes, and -700 on No.
Is there a horse that can actually win the Triple Crown this year? Nyquist has by far the best chance to do so at +1350 odds (6.9% probability). The next closest is Moyhaymen at +4250 odds (2.3% probability).
Odds on winning Triple Crown
Mor Spirit +5250
Brody’s Cause +8050
Gun Runner +8550
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) May 5, 2016
The folks over at Covers have published some historic facts for the Kentucky Derby that may be helpful when placing your wager.
And here’s your latest #KentuckyDerby weather report:
Expected to be partly cloudy, 80 degrees and 15% chance of rain, with 48% humiditiy
— Covers (@Covers) May 7, 2016
Do you have any early picks for the Kentucky Derby? Will there be another horse like American Pharoah this year? Feel free to leave your thoughts and comments below.