On Saturday evening, the Villanova Wildcats (33-5, 19-17 ATS) will face off against the Oklahoma Sooners (29-7. 14-20 ATS) with a trip to the championship game on the line. In an interesting twist, these two teams actually faced off in the Pearl Harbor Classic back on December 7 with Oklahoma demolishing Villanova by 23-points.
Despite losing in their previous matchup, the Wildcats opened as 1-point favorites at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbooks. At the time of publication, public betting was fairly even with Villanova receiving 42% of spread bets and 51% of total dollars wagered.
Although the public has been split on this game, Villanova has moved from -1 to -2 since opening. We should note that there have been no bet signals triggered on this game, however, we do have several NCAA Tournament betting systems which indicate that the Wildcats could be an excellent value.
Before the start of the tourney, we explained how bettors should be wary of trendy underdogs and detailed a betting system that had gone 80-54 (59.7%) with +21.56 units won. Most of the system matches take place during the first two rounds of the tournament, but Villanova fits the bill as a small favorite receiving less than 50% of spread bets. For what it’s worth, this system has gone 6-4 ATS (+1.77 units) in the Final Four and Championship.
While there’s been limited line movement on the spread, there has been massive movement on the over/under. The total opened at 150 at Pinnacle and 65% of bettors have taken the over. Despite this one-sided public betting, the total has dropped 5.5-points from 150 to 144.5. This epic reverse line movement is an excellent indicator that sharp money has hammered the under.
The line graph below displays how public betting has affected the total at Pinnacle.
Furthermore, there have been two 5Dimes steam moves triggered on the under. This season, the 5Dimes O/U steam move has gone 665-547 with +57.5 units won making it our most profitable college basketball bet signal. That said, the moves were triggered at Under 148 and Under 147, so much of that value has already been sucked out.
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These numbers are subject to change before kickoff, so bettors should be sure to visit our free college basketball odds page for the latest lines, injuries, public betting trends and more.
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