2016 Cy Young Odds

2016 Cy Young Odds

Last season Houston’s Dallas Kuechel (20-8, 2.48 ERA) and Chicago’s Jake Arrieta (22-6, 1.77 ERA) were the Cy Young winners in the American League and National League, respectively. This was a massive surprise to bettors, as many sportsbooks didn’t offer odds for either player prior to the start of the season.

At BetOnline, who offered odds for more players than any other sportsbook, Kuechel was listed at 150/1 while Arrieta was listed at 40/1. These odds make them the two of the biggest long shots in recent history. Before last season, the only bigger Cy Young shocker than Kuechel was R.A. Dickey in 2012. No sportsbook had even posted odds for the knuckleballer prior to the season.

The table below displays the past six Cy Young winners for each league along with their preseason odds.

YearAL WinnerPreseason OddsNL WinnerPreseason Odds
2016Rick Porcello+20,000Max Scherzer+1,000
2015Dallas Kuechel+15,000Jake Arrieta+4,000
2014Corey Kluber (CLE)N/AClayton Kershaw (LAD)+500
2013Max Scherzer (DET)+2,000Clayton Kershaw (LAD)+600
2012David Price (TB)+700R.A DickeyN/A
2011Justin Verlander (DET)+1,000Clayton Kershaw (LAD)+1,500
2010Felix Hernandez (SEA)+500Roy Halladay (PHI)+250

Clayton Kershaw, who has won the award three times in the last five years, was listed as the pre-season favorite to win the National League Cy Young. It’s interesting to note that prior to last season he was listed at -200 to win, but this year he opened at +150. In the American League, Chicago’s Chris Sale (+250) and Boston’s David Price (+275) had the shortest odds.

On May 15th, the Las Vegas-based Westgate Superbook posted updated Cy Young odds. Jake Arrieta and Clayton Kershaw (+200) were listed as the favorites in the National League while Chris Sale (+200) remained the front-runner in the American League.

About two weeks later, Bovada also updated their Cy Young odds with Clayton Kershaw (EVEN) listed as the front-runner in the National League. Even more impressively, Kershaw was listed as the favorite to win the NL Most Valuable Player (MVP) Award. In the American League, Rich Hill (+750) emerged as a dark-horse candidate but this is still Sale’s award to lose.

The Westgate updated their odds again on June 16th with Kershaw (+120) and Sale (-150) still listed as the favorites in their respective leagues. It was also interesting to see that three Indians pitchers saw their odds improve tremendously, and none of those pitchers are Carlos Carrasco. Danny Salazar (+2000 to +700), Corey Kluber (+5000 to +2000) and Josh Tomlin (+5000 to +3000) are all top 10 Cy Young candidates.

On June 27, Kershaw (-140) and Sale (-150) were still the front-runners, but the landscape has changed dramatically over the past two months. Kershaw’s injury caused him to plummet from -140 to +30000 while Sale’s struggles have caused him to drop from -150 to +450. On August 22 there was a three-way tie in both leagues, but two favorites have emerged in the last week.

In the American League, Cole Hamels moved from +350 to +125 following in impressive performance in his last outing (8.0 IP, 2H, 0ER, 8K). In the National League, Stephen Strasburg moved from +400 to +125 which is utterly shocking considering that the Nats ace is currently on the disabled list. In another interesting development, Jon Lester’s odds of winning the NL Cy Young improved from 15/1 to 3/1 in the past week.

Personally, I think that Lester’s teammate, Kyle Hendricks, is still being vastly mispriced. Despite an ordinary win-loss record and low strikeout total, Hendricks boasts a league-leading 2.19 ERA this season. He’s not a household name, but his odds should be much shorter than 20/1.

The tables below compares the preseason Cy Young odds at 5Dimes, BetOnline and Bovada with the latest odds from both offshore and Las Vegas sportsbooks. These odds will be updated throughout the season as new information becomes available.

AL Cy Young

Player (Team)Westgate (8/29)Westgate (8/22)Westgate (8/15)Westgate (8/8)Westgate (7/11)Westgate (6/27)Westgate (6/13)Bovada (6/1)Westgate (5/16)Bovada (3/22)5Dimes (2/29)BetOnline (2/25)
Cole Hamels (TEX)+125+350+450+300+800+600+2000+3300+1500+2000+2000+2000
Chris Sale (CWS)+450+700+600+300-110-150-150-150-140+600+250+250
Rick Porcello (BOS)+500+350+450+1200+3000+8000+3000+3300+2000N/A+10000+20000
J.A. Happ (TOR)+550+350+225+750+2000+8000+2000N/A+2000N/AN/AN/A
Corey Kluber (CLE)+1200+2000+1800+2000+4000+2000+2000+2000+5000+600+350+325
Zach Britton (BAL)+1500+1000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Danny Duffy (KC)+1500+500N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Steven Wright (BOS)+2500+1500+800+600+1200+2000N/AN/A+7500N/AN/AN/A
Aaron Sanchez (TOR)+3000+2000+800+500+2000N/AN/AN/A+1800N/AN/AN/A
Michael Fulmer (DET)+5000+5000+4000+2000+3000N/AN/AN/A+3000N/AN/AN/A
Carlos Carrasco (CLE)+20000+10000+5000+5000+4000N/AN/AN/AN/A+1200+750+850
Jose Quintana (CWS)+20000+20000+20000+10000+10000+8000+4000+1400+1500N/A+8000+8000
Felix Hernandez (SEA)+30000+10000+30000+30000+10000+4000+2000+750+1500+600+600+600
Danny Salazar (CLE)+30000+10000+2000+2000+600+550+700+900+2000+2500+2500+3300
Chris Tillman (BAL)+50000+4000+1500+1500+2500+1500+2000+1200+2000N/AN/AN/A
David Price (BOS)+50000+30000+30000+20000+5000+1200+700N/A+800+400+300+275
Jordan Zimmermann (DET)+100000+100000+100000+100000+10000+4000+2000N/A+1500+3300+5000+5000
Josh Tomlin (CLE)+200000+100000+30000+10000+4000+4000+3000N/A+5000N/AN/AN/A
Marcus Stroman (TOR)+200000+200000+100000+50000+30000+20000+6000N/A+2500+2000+3300+3300
Chris Archer (TB)+500000+500000+500000+500000+100000+50000+50000N/A+10000+600+1200+1200
Taijuan Walker (SEA)+500000+500000+500000+100000+30000+30000+20000N/A+5000N/A+5000+5000
Marco Estrada (TOR)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+2000N/A+5000N/AN/A
Masahiro Tanaka (NYY)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+900N/AN/A+5000+5000
Sonny Gray (OAK)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+1200+1400+1600
Garrett Richards (LAA)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+2500+2000+2000
Justin Verlander (DET)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+2000+3300+3300
Ian Kennedy (KC)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+10000
Jake Odorizzi (TB)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+8000+8000
Wade Davis (KC)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000N/AN/A
Carlos Rodon (CWS)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+5000
Craig Kimbrel (BOS)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000N/AN/A
Yordano Ventura (KC)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+5000+5000
Dallas Keuchel (HOU)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+800+600+600
Rich Hill (OAK)N/AN/AN/AN/A+1200+10000+6000+750N/AN/AN/AN/A
Luis Severino (NYY)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+10000
Michael Pineda (NYY)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+5000
Collin McHugh (HOU)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+6600+6600

NL Cy Young

Player (Team)Westgate (8/29)Westgate (8/22)Westgate (8/15)Westgate (8/8)Westgate (7/11)Westgate (6/27)Westgate (6/13)Bovada (6/1)Westgate (5/16)Bovada (3/22)5Dimes (2/29)BetOnline (2/25)
Stephen Strasburg (WSH)+125+400+250-110+450+1800+600+500+800+1400+1400+1400
Jake Arrieta (CHC)+175+300+350+800+700+250+200+350+200+750+700+700
Jon Lester (CHC)+300+1500+5000+3000+3000+4000+3000N/A+2000+2000+2500+2500
Johhny Cueto (SF)+450+300+400+350+350+1000+3000+900+4000+2000+2000+2000
Max Scherzer (WSH)+700+1500+1500+3000+4000+6000+5000N/A+1200+1000+1000+1000
Madison Bumgarner (SF)+750+300+400+800+350+1200+1800+1200+1500+1000+850+1000
Kyle Hendricks (CHC)+2000+1200+800+800N/AN/AN/AN/A+4000N/AN/AN/A
Noah Syndergaard (NYM)+2000+10000+10000+10000+2500+4000+3000+800+1500+2000+2000+2000
Jose Fernandez (MIA)+2500+2500+1500+1500+700+1500+700+1400+2000+1400+1200+1200
Jacob deGrom (NYM)+30000+10000+5000+6000+10000+10000+10000N/A+4000+1000+1400+1400
Clayton Kershaw (LAD)+30000+2500+1800+8000+300-140+120+100+200+175+175+150
Carlos Martinez (STL)+50000+50000+30000+20000+30000+30000+30000N/A+4000+3300+3300+3300
Jason Hammel (CHC)+50000+50000+20000+50000+20000+10000+10000+1600+4000N/AN/AN/A
Zack Greinke (ARI)+100000+50000+50000+50000+10000+8000N/AN/AN/A+1400+2000+2000
Kenta Maeda (LAD)+200000+200000+200000+100000+50000+50000+50000N/A+10000N/AN/AN/A
Gerrit Cole (PIT)+300000+200000+100000+50000+50000+50000+30000+3300+2000+1400+1700+2000
Jeff Samardzija (SF)+300000+300000+300000+100000+30000+30000+10000N/A+4000N/A+5000+5000
Vince Velasquez (PHI)+500000+300000+200000+100000+50000+50000+50000N/A+10000N/AN/AN/A
Scott Kazmir (LAD)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+10000+10000
Matt Harvey (NYM)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+1200+1400+1400
Michael Wacha (STL)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+5000
James Shields (SD)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+5000
Adam Wainwright (STL)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+2000+2000+2000
Shelby Miller (ARI)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+8000+8000
Gio Gonzalez (WSH)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+10000
Steven Matz (NYM)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+6600+6600
Tyson Ross (SD)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+5000
Francisco Liriano (PIT)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+3300+4500+5000
John Lackey (CHC)N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+10000+10000

The section below was published on March 22, 2016

If you’re looking for value, Toronto’s Marcus Stroman (+3,300) could be an intriguing option. Last season the 24-year old righty came back early from a presumed season-ending injury. In four starts, he unleashed his filthy repertoire en route to a 4-0 record with a 1.67 ERA. He’ll be supported by one of the league’s best offenses, which should result in an excellent win-loss record.

In the National League, this could be the year Pittsburgh’s Gerrit Cole becomes a household name. Last season the former number one overall pick went 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA and 202 strikeouts. He’s still only 25-years old and seems slightly underpriced at +2,000. That said, bettors should wait until additional sportsbooks post Cy Young odds so they can shop for the best line.

Spring Training starts next Tuesday, so make sure to bookmark our free MLB odds page for the latest odds, trends, injuries and futures. We also encourage readers to sign up for Bet Labs to start creating their betting systems before the start of the season.

Do you think that either Kuechel or Arrieta will repeat as the Cy Young winner? Are there any dark horse candidates that oddsmakers are overlooking? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

David Solar

David was the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He has since moved on to greener pastures.

  • Remy
    09/05/2016 at 8:05 pm

    I don’t get it David. How is Masahiro Tanaka not even in the equation? I’d put him as a top 3 candidate… have you simply missed him or is there reasoning behind his omission?

Post a Comment