2016 College Football Week 2 Line Moves That Matter

After an opening weekend featuring several massive upsets and improbable comebacks, it may be tough to match the intensity from last week’s slate of college football action. South Alabama, who reached 70/1 on the moneyline at one point, defeated 20th-ranked Mississippi State. Florida State, who trailed Ole Miss by 22 points in the first half, scored 33 straight points en route to a 45-34 victory.

I have consistently reiterated that ranked teams are vastly overvalued, especially in early season games where there’s limited game film available. That trend held true with ranked teams going just 6-11 ATS against unranked opponents. Past research has also found that bettors place too much importance on home-field advantage, which continued last week with home teams going just 35-42 ATS.

Yesterday I explained which side was offering value in Saturday’s ACC showdown between Wake Forest and Duke, but I wanted to examine several additional games with intriguing line movement. Using the information available to Sportsbook Insider subscribers, I have examined the latest public betting trends to determine what’s moving the line in three Week 2 matchups.

Boston College as UMass (Saturday at 12:00PM eastern)

Last season Boston College did something that no other major conference team had accomplished since 1976 — they went winless in conference play for both football and basketball. Those struggles continued last week when the Eagles blew a late lead against Georgia Tech.

Despite their recent ineptitude, Boston College opened as 17.5-point favorites against in-state rival UMass at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook. Bettors have jumped at the opportunity to fade the Eagles as road chalk, with 69% of tickets and 78% of total dollars wagered taking the Minutemen.

[click image below to enlarge]

BC line chart

With the market steadily pounding UMass all week, oddsmakers have been forced to adjust their number from Boston College -17.5 to -16.5. It’s also interesting to note that bettors are anticipating an upset, with 66% of tickets and 99% of the money taking the home underdog to win straight up. Since opening, the UMass moneyline has dropped from +629 to +526 at Pinnacle.

North Carolina at Illinois (Saturday at 7:30PM eastern)

In one of this weekend’s most compelling games, North Carolina opened as 10-point road favorites at Pinnacle. Although the Tar Heels are receiving 59% of spread tickets, they have actually dropped from -10 to -7.5. This line movement can be easily explained by our money percentages, which show that Illinois is receiving 66% of total dollars wagered.

[click image below to enlarge]

UNC Line Movement

As you can see from the line chart above, the Fighting Illini briefly dropped from +7.5 to +7 on Thursday afternoon but that line wasn’t available for long. Less than ten seconds after reaching this key numbers, there was buyback on the Tar Heels.

Texas Tech at Arizona State (Saturday at 10:00PM eastern)

In one of this week’s most heavily bet games, Texas Tech opened as 4.5-point road underdogs at Pinnacle. Following last week’s 52-point victory against Stephen F. Austin, bettors have been lining up to take the Red Raiders and the points. At the time of publication, Texas Tech was receiving 73% of tickets and 71% of total dollars wagered.

The screenshot below displays the breakdown from our seven contributing sportsbooks.

TTU ASU

Due to this overwhelming public support, Texas Tech dropped from +4.5 to +2.5. In other words, public money is largely responsible for this two-point move.

Interested in checking out our new money percentages and line charts for the entire slate of Week 2 games? Sign up now for a 4-day trial of Sportsbook Insider Pro.

In addition to the features shown in this post, subscribers also have access to our entire suite of live odds, public betting trends, steam moves, smart money alerts and our in-house Best Bet picks. We currently have six pending NCAAF Best Bets including:

  • UNLV at UCLA
  • Arkansas at TCU
  • NC State at East Carolina

Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Make sure to utilize our live chat or call us directly at 877-838-2853.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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One comment on “2016 College Football Week 2 Line Moves That Matter
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