2016-17 Premier League: Week 11 Betting Preview

In Week 10 our value pick on Southampton wasn’t able to hit, but our parlay on Arsenal/Man City (+116) did. Value plays have now earned +9.39 units on the year and we’ve got two more for this weekend’s games.

Week 10 Results
Arsenal -225 at Sunderland
Manchester City -210 at West Brom
Watford -133 vs. Hull
Liverpool -130 at Crystal Palace
Everton -113 vs. West Ham
Stoke +105 vs. Swansea
Chelsea +140 at Southampton
Middlesbrough +153 vs. Bournemouth
Tottenham/Leicester Draw +322
Manchester United/Burnley Draw +540

Season Trends
Home: 42 wins of 100 (-3.96 units)
Away: 32 wins of 100 (-23.82 units)
Draw: 26 wins of 100 (+2.87 units)

Here are the current Premier League title odds at 5Dimes
Manchester City +140 (23 pts)
Liverpool +300 (23)
Arsenal +500 (23)
Chelsea +600 (22)
Tottenham +1400 (20)
Manchester United +2800 (15)

Week 11 has a couple big matchups including the North London Derby between Arsenal and Tottenham, as well as Chelsea hosting Everton. But to start off my first value pick will be buying as low as possible and taking the Bournemouth/Sunderland Draw at +300. Sunderland has been a disaster so far, getting off to the worst 10-game start to an EPL season in history (2 points). With 28 matches left in the season it’s going to be an uphill climb to avoid relegation, but they need to start somewhere. They fought back last week against Arsenal before collapsing in a 10-minute span, but they’ve shown glimmers of hope. Bournemouth have been surprisingly strong but the public is a little too heavy on them this week. Only 10% of bettors are taking the Draw +300 and that’s where I believe the value lies. I’m not confident Sunderland can get all 3 points but do think they can grab 1, so fade the public and take the draw here.

The next pick is going back to the well, and taking Arsenal +105 vs. Tottenham. I’ve made it pretty clear up front that I am an Arsenal fan but that doesn’t mean blindly betting them each game. This week, however, is a spot I feel comfotable backing the home side to take all 3 points. Tottenham will likely be without Harry Kane once again, and they’re coming off a home defeat in the Champions League to Bayer Leverkusen. Arsenal are firing on all cylinders and although they did have to travel to Bulgaria midweek, they were able to rest a number of key players for this weekend. The betting public is also somewhat high on Arsenal this week as they’re getting close to 60% of tickets, but there’s been slight line movement on the Gunners since opening. At +105, I like Arsenal to win straight up and continue their momentum.

Most Lopsided: 70% on Chelsea -187, 62% on Arsenal +105, 61% on Leicester -135

Biggest Line Moves: Arsenal +105 to -105, Swansea +497 to +394, Man City -400 to -425

Value Plays: Arsenal +105, Bournemouth/Sunderland Draw +300

As a reminder, all Premium and Pro members can get access to all odds, # of tickets, betting percentages around the market and more.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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2 comments on “2016-17 Premier League: Week 11 Betting Preview
  1. I think your forgetting Spurs remain undefeated and this is a huge derby game for them. I do think Kane will return for such a big game as he has been training. Arsenal do look good but have injuries right now to key players . Spurs have a great defense and think the under a better bet. We shall see. I was raised in the north bank highbury and know not to jump on a win because of our history over the last few games. I do hop your right as 3 points are big right now.

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