2015 College Football: Week 6 Opening Line Report
California at Utah: Cal is 5-0 and already has a chance to go over their Season Win Total of 5.5 this week with a win at Utah. Cal opened +7.5 at Pinnacle but have already moved to +7. Only 20% of early bets are on the visiting Golden Bears so it will be interesting to see if this line goes below that key number of +7 with the public all over Utah. This game also kicks off late Saturday night so will definitely be one of the most bet games of the weekend.
TCU at Kansas State: Kansas State always seems to be a tough matchup for teams, and Oklahoma State nearly lost to them at home last week before escaping with a win. Even with TCU coming off a blowout win over Texas, early bettors seem to like Bill Snyder’s Wildcats as they’ve received 60% of early bets. It may seem obvious to some, but it’s always crucial to know which sportsbook opened a line, and when the opened it. For instance CRIS opened TCU at -7.5 and increased to -8.5, but Pinnacle opened an hour later at -8.5 and dropped to -8. So based on CRIS there was a move on TCU, but based on Pinnacle there was a move on Kansas State.
Northwestern at Michigan: Bettors still aren’t sold on Michigan, as they’re getting just 23% of early spread bets as 8-point favorites. Both schools have exceeded expectations so far but bookmakers think there’s a clear advantage for the Wolverines. As our Bet Labs data has shown, fading the trendy underdog has been very profitable when the line move is on the favorite (indicating sharp money).
Oklahoma vs. Texas (in Dallas, TX): Oklahoma opened -13 at BetOnline but quickly moved to -16, showing the little faith bettors have on Texas. Most sportsbooks then clearly had to open Oklahoma around -16, which would get some more split action. Over the summer the lookahead line at CG Technology was Oklahoma -5.5 so this season’s early performance has garnered a 10.5-point difference. Texas was legitimately embarrassed last week against TCU so bettors would be buying VERY low on the Longhorns this week.
Florida at Missouri: This is the third straight week we’ve featured the Gators in our Opening Line Report but they’re one of the most surprising teams of the season. Over the summer Golden Nugget had Mizzou -10, but on Sunday night Pinnacle opened Mizzou +4. This difference of two touchdowns may seem extreme but Mizzou will likely be without QB Maty Mauk (suspension) again and already have a struggling offense. Betting has been fairly split so far but be sure to keep track of all the latest line moves and betting percentages during the week as the market is always moving.
Lauren
10/08/2015 at 12:23 amJust an FYI – You’re entire system is wrong. You don’t simply bet against the public – whether it’s 20%, 30%, etc. The only way to know if sharp money is involved in moving the line (not all line moves are sharp incidentally, you have to seek each game out individually) is to match the % of public wages relative to the line move. For example, if a line opens at -7 and goes down to -3, technically all public money SHOULD BE on the underdog, cuz the line is being brought DOWN. (The more money bet on a team raises the line if its a fave, and lowers it if its a dog) But, if you look and the higher % of bets are on the favorite, then that underdog has bets coming in on it from the sharps. The public bets on the favorite shld bring the line UP from 7, but the line dropped! So the sharps are pouring in money on dog so line drops. Vegas lines will NEVER show you where the sharp money is going. But it’s not AUTOMATICALLY the opposite of public! The sharps aren’t going to take Jacksonville v. the Pats! They study FOOTBALL. But, the easiest way is to watch which direction the line goes. Does the public bets justify the line move? If not, then it’s wise guy money coming in.