In what’s already been a memorable World Cup, the semifinal matchups consist of 3 of the 4 favorites to win it prior to the tourney. Below are the opening 3-way lines for each game via 5Dimes:
Brazil v. Germany on Tuesday (7/8) at 4 pm ET
Brazil to advance: -105
Germany to advance: -110
Argentina v. Netherlands on Wednesday (7/9) at 4 pm ET
Argentina to advance: -130
Netherlands to advance: +115
Just as we have in the Group Stages, Round of 16, and Quarterfinals, we’re using developed probabilities by FiveThirtyEight.com to find which teams have an edge over the odds to advance. Their World Cup forecasting model uses ESPN’s Soccer Power Index (SPI) — a system that combines game and player-based ratings to estimate a team’s overall skill level — to calculate odds of each country’s performance during each stage of the World Cup. Below we have compared the implied probabilities (bookmakers’ opening odds) to probabilities from FiveThirtyEight:
|Country||Implied Probability (Odds)||FiveThirtyEight Probablity|
|Brazil||51.22% (-105 odds)||67%|
|Germany||52.38% (-110 odds)||33%|
|Argentina||56.52% (-130 odds)||55%|
|Netherlands||46.51% (+115 odds)||45%|
Though there are just two matchups this round, we’ve found that Brazil (we’ve adjusted FiveThirtyEight’s projections even without injured Neymar and suspended Thiago Silva) are once again undervalued to advance. In the other semifinal, we like Argentina to slip past Netherlands.
Do you agree that it will be an all-South American final between Brazil and Argentina, or will the European teams spoil the fun?